Exogeneity within the M2 Demand Function: Evidence from a Large Macroeconomic System
A large body of literature investigates whether a stable and predictable long-run association between money and its arguments exists. One point of variation between models is whether to include an interest rate measure directly within the long-run relationship. Several recent studies indicate that empirical findings are sensitive to the choice. Therefore, the present article reexamines the empirical significance of the interest rate within a four-equation macroeconomic system. The results suggest that the interest rate (1) may be excluded from the M2 demand function, (2) is strongly exogenous to most of the system's remaining variables, and (3) may represent a common trend. (JEL E41, E52, C32) Copyright 2004, Oxford University Press.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 42 (2004)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Oxford University Press, Great Clarendon Street, Oxford OX2 6DP, UK|
Fax: 01865 267 985
Web page: http://ei.oupjournals.org/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.oup.co.uk/journals|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jordi Galí, 1992. "How Well Does The IS-LM Model Fit Postwar U. S. Data?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(2), pages 709-738.
- John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991.
"Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots,"
NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, John & Perron, Pierre, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," Scholarly Articles 3374863, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Technical Working Papers 0100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, J.Y. & Perron, P., 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomics should know about unit roots," Papers 360, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Harvey Cutler & Stephen Davies & Martin Schmidt, 2000. "Forecasting in a large macroeconomic system," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(13), pages 1711-1718.
- Haslag, Joseph H & Hein, Scott E, 1990. "Economic Activity and Two Monetary Base Measures," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(4), pages 672-676, November.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Comparison of Interwar and Postwar Business Cycles: Monetarism Reconsidered," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(2), pages 250-257, May.
- Christopher A. Sims, 1980. "Comparison of Interwar and Postwar Business Cycles: Monetarism Reconsidered," NBER Working Papers 0430, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Harvey, A. C. & Stock, James H., 1988. "Continuous time autoregressive models with common stochastic trends," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 365-384.
- Crowder, William J, 1998. "The Long-Run Link between Money Growth and Inflation," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 36(2), pages 229-243, April.
- Miller, Stephen M, 1991. "Monetary Dynamics: An Application of Cointegration and Error-Correction Modeling," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 139-154, May.
- Ericsson, Neil R & Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1998. "Exogeneity, Cointegration, and Economic Policy Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 370-387, October.
- Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 1998. "Exogeneity, cointegration, and economic policy analysis," International Finance Discussion Papers 616, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Hendry, David F, 1988. "The Encompassing Implications of Feedback versus Feedforward Mechanisms in Econometrics," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 132-149, March.
- Michelle R. Garfinkel & Daniel L. Thornton, 1991. "Alternative measures of the monetary base: what are the differences and are they important?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 19-35.
- Hendry, David F. & Ericsson, Neil R., 1991. "Modeling the demand for narrow money in the United Kingdom and the United States," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 833-881, May.
- David F. Hendry & Neil R. Ericsson, 1990. "Modeling the demand for narrow money in the United Kingdom and the United States," International Finance Discussion Papers 383, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Gordon, Robert J, 1984. "The Short-run Demand for Money: A Reconsideration," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(4), pages 403-434, November.
- Robert J. Gordon, 1984. "The Short-Run Demand for Money: A Reconsideration," NBER Working Papers 1421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gordon, Robert J, 1984. "The Short-Run Demand for Money: A Reconsideration," CEPR Discussion Papers 24, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Miyao, Ryuzo, 1996. "Does a Cointegrating M2 Demand Relation Really Exist in the United States?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(3), pages 365-380, August.
- Haug, Alfred A., 1996. "Tests for cointegration a Monte Carlo comparison," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 89-115.
- Haug, A.A., 1992. "Tests for Cointegration: A Monte Carlo Comparison," Papers 93-2, York (Canada) - Department of Economics.
- James M. Boughton & George S. Tavlas, 1990. "Modeling money demand in large industrial countries: buffer stock and error correction approaches," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 433-467.
- Boughton, James M. & Tavlas, George S., 1990. "Modeling money demand in large industrial countries: Buffer stock and error correction approaches," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 433-461.
- Hetzel, Robert L & Mehra, Yash P, 1989. "The Behavior of Money Demand in the 1980s," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(4), pages 455-463, November.
- Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Hafer, R W & Jansen, Dennis W, 1991. "The Demand for Money in the United States: Evidence from Cointegration Tests," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 155-168, May.
- Hafer, R.W. & Jansen, D.W., 1990. "The Demand For Money In The United States: Evidence From Cointegration Tests," Papers 9010, Erasmus University of Rotterdam - Institute for Economic Research.
- Cochrane, John H. & Sbordone, Argia M., 1988. "Multivariate estimates of the permanent components of GNP and stock prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 255-296.
- Harbo, Ingrid, et al, 1998. "Asymptotic Inference on Cointegrating Rank in Partial Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 388-399, October.
- Lastrapes, William D & Selgin, George A, 1994. "Buffer-Stock Money: Interpreting Short-Run Dynamics Using Long-Run Restrictions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(1), pages 34-54, February.
- Grayham E. Mizon & David F. Hendry, 1998. "Exogeneity, causality, and co-breaking in economic policy analysis of a small econometric model of money in the UK," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 267-294.
- Wu, Yangru & Zhang, Hua, 1997. "Do Interest Rates Follow Unit-Root Processes? Evidence from Cross-Maturity Treasury Bill Yields," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 69-81, January.
- Fischer, Andreas M. & Nicoletti, Giuseppe, 1993. "Regression direction and weak exogeneity: Determining the conditioning properties of US money demand functions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 213-235, November.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
- Mehra, Yash P, 1991. "Wage Growth and the Inflation Process: An Empirical Note," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 931-937, September.
- Laidler, David, 1984. "The 'Buffer Stock' Notion in Monetary Economics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(376a), pages 17-34, Supplemen.
- Martin B. Schmidt, 2000. "The Dynamic Behavior of Wages and Prices: Cointegration Tests within a Large Macroeconomic System," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 67(1), pages 123-138, July. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:ecinqu:v:42:y:2004:i:4:p:634-646. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Oxford University Press)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.