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The end of social confinement and COVID-19 re-emergence risk

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  • Leonardo López

    (Barcelona Institute for Global Health)

  • Xavier Rodó

    (Barcelona Institute for Global Health
    ICREA)

Abstract

The lack of effective pharmaceutical interventions for SARS-CoV-2 raises the possibility of COVID-19 recurrence. We explore different post-confinement scenarios by using a stochastic modified SEIR (susceptible–exposed–infectious–recovered) model that accounts for the spread of infection during the latent period and also incorporates time-decaying effects due to potential loss of acquired immunity, people’s increasing awareness of social distancing and the use of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Our results suggest that lockdowns should remain in place for at least 60 days to prevent epidemic growth, as well as a potentially larger second wave of SARS-CoV-2 cases occurring within months. The best-case scenario should also gradually incorporate workers in a daily proportion at most 50% higher than during the confinement period. We show that decaying immunity and particularly awareness and behaviour have 99% significant effects on both the current wave of infection and on preventing COVID-19 re-emergence. Social distancing and individual non-pharmaceutical interventions could potentially remove the need for lockdowns.

Suggested Citation

  • Leonardo López & Xavier Rodó, 2020. "The end of social confinement and COVID-19 re-emergence risk," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 4(7), pages 746-755, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nathum:v:4:y:2020:i:7:d:10.1038_s41562-020-0908-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41562-020-0908-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sheryl L. Chang & Nathan Harding & Cameron Zachreson & Oliver M. Cliff & Mikhail Prokopenko, 2020. "Modelling transmission and control of the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-13, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bienvenido-Huertas, David, 2021. "Do unemployment benefits and economic aids to pay electricity bills remove the energy poverty risk of Spanish family units during lockdown? A study of COVID-19-induced lockdown," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    2. Simin Zou & Xuhui He, 2021. "Effect of Train-Induced Wind on the Transmission of COVID-19: A New Insight into Potential Infectious Risks," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(15), pages 1-17, August.
    3. Naudé, Wim, 2023. "We Already Live in a Degrowth World, and We Do Not like It," IZA Discussion Papers 16191, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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