IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/trapol/v127y2022icp22-30.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The effects of air transport mobility and global connectivity on viral transmission: Lessons learned from Covid-19 and its variants

Author

Listed:
  • Choi, Youngran
  • Zou, Li
  • Dresner, Martin

Abstract

We investigate the impact of air travel mobility and global connectivity on viral transmission by tracing the announced arrival time of COVID-19 and its major variants in countries around the world. We find that air travel intensity to a country, “effective distance” as measured by international air traffic, is generally a significant predictor for the announced viral arrival time. The level of healthcare infrastructure in a country is less important at predicting the initial transmission and detection time of a virus. A policy variable, notably the percentage reduction of total inbound seats in response to a viral outbreak, is largely ineffective at delaying viral transmission and discovery time. These findings suggest that air network connectivity is a major contributor to the speed of viral transmission. However, government attempts to delay viral transmission by reducing air network connectivity after the virus is first discovered are largely ineffective.

Suggested Citation

  • Choi, Youngran & Zou, Li & Dresner, Martin, 2022. "The effects of air transport mobility and global connectivity on viral transmission: Lessons learned from Covid-19 and its variants," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 22-30.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:127:y:2022:i:c:p:22-30
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2022.08.009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X22002207
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tranpol.2022.08.009?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas Hale & Noam Angrist & Rafael Goldszmidt & Beatriz Kira & Anna Petherick & Toby Phillips & Samuel Webster & Emily Cameron-Blake & Laura Hallas & Saptarshi Majumdar & Helen Tatlow, 2021. "A global panel database of pandemic policies (Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker)," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(4), pages 529-538, April.
    2. Smriti Mallapaty, 2021. "What the data say about border closures and COVID spread," Nature, Nature, vol. 589(7841), pages 185-185, January.
    3. Zhang, Yahua & Zhang, Anming & Wang, Jiaoe, 2020. "Exploring the roles of high-speed train, air and coach services in the spread of COVID-19 in China," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 34-42.
    4. Panayotis Christidis & Aris Christodoulou, 2020. "The Predictive Capacity of Air Travel Patterns during the Global Spread of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Risk, Uncertainty and Randomness," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(10), pages 1-15, May.
    5. Smriti Mallapaty, 2021. "Omicron-variant border bans ignore the evidence, say scientists," Nature, Nature, vol. 600(7888), pages 199-199, December.
    6. Parviez Hosseini & Susanne H Sokolow & Kurt J Vandegrift & A Marm Kilpatrick & Peter Daszak, 2010. "Predictive Power of Air Travel and Socio-Economic Data for Early Pandemic Spread," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(9), pages 1-8, September.
    7. Sun, Xiaoqian & Wandelt, Sebastian & Zhang, Anming, 2021. "On the degree of synchronization between air transport connectivity and COVID-19 cases at worldwide level," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 115-123.
    8. Sheryl L. Chang & Nathan Harding & Cameron Zachreson & Oliver M. Cliff & Mikhail Prokopenko, 2020. "Modelling transmission and control of the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-13, December.
    9. Sun, Xiaoqian & Wandelt, Sebastian & Zhang, Anming, 2020. "How did COVID-19 impact air transportation? A first peek through the lens of complex networks," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    10. Solomon Hsiang & Daniel Allen & Sébastien Annan-Phan & Kendon Bell & Ian Bolliger & Trinetta Chong & Hannah Druckenmiller & Luna Yue Huang & Andrew Hultgren & Emma Krasovich & Peiley Lau & Jaecheol Le, 2020. "The effect of large-scale anti-contagion policies on the COVID-19 pandemic," Nature, Nature, vol. 584(7820), pages 262-267, August.
    11. Sun, Xiaoqian & Wandelt, Sebastian & Zhang, Anming, 2021. "Delayed reaction towards emerging COVID-19 variants of concern: Does history repeat itself?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 203-215.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mutascu, Mihai & Sokic, Alexandre, 2023. "Air transportation under COVID-19 pandemic restrictions: A wavelet analysis," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 155-181.
    2. Wandelt, Sebastian & Sun, Xiaoqian & Zhang, Anming, 2023. "On the contagion leakage via incoming flights during China’s aviation policies in the fight against COVID-19," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mutascu, Mihai & Sokic, Alexandre, 2023. "Air transportation under COVID-19 pandemic restrictions: A wavelet analysis," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 155-181.
    2. Li, Tao & Rong, Lili & Zhang, Anming, 2021. "Assessing regional risk of COVID-19 infection from Wuhan via high-speed rail," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 226-238.
    3. Su, Min & Hu, Baoyang & Luan, Weixin & Tian, Chuang, 2022. "Effects of COVID-19 on China's civil aviation passenger transport market," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    4. Sun, Xiaoqian & Wandelt, Sebastian & Zhang, Anming, 2021. "Technological and educational challenges towards pandemic-resilient aviation," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 104-115.
    5. Xue, Dabin & Liu, Zhizhao & Wang, Bing & Yang, Jian, 2021. "Impacts of COVID-19 on aircraft usage and fuel consumption: A case study on four Chinese international airports," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    6. Mueller, Falko, 2022. "Examining COVID-19-triggered changes in spatial connectivity patterns in the European air transport network up to June 2021," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    7. Zhang, Linfeng & Hou, Meng & Liu, Yichen & Wang, Kun & Yang, Hangjun, 2022. "Measuring Beijing's international air connectivity and suggestions for improvement post COVID-19," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 132-143.
    8. Xiao Chen & Hanwei Huang & Jiandong Ju & Ruoyan Sun & Jialiang Zhang, 2022. "Endogenous cross-region human mobility and pandemics," CEP Discussion Papers dp1860, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    9. Li, Siping & Zhou, Yaoming & Kundu, Tanmoy & Sheu, Jiuh-Biing, 2021. "Spatiotemporal variation of the worldwide air transportation network induced by COVID-19 pandemic in 2020," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 168-184.
    10. Yang, Yang & Liu, Qing & Chang, Chia-Hsun, 2023. "China-Europe freight transportation under the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic and government restriction measures," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    11. Zhang, Linfeng & Yang, Hangjun & Wang, Kun & Bian, Lei & Zhang, Xian, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 on airline passenger travel behavior: An exploratory analysis on the Chinese aviation market," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    12. Xiaoqian Sun & Sebastian Wandelt & Hartmut Fricke & Judith Rosenow, 2021. "The Impact of COVID-19 on Air Transportation Network in the United States, Europe, and China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-11, August.
    13. Min Su & Baoyang Hu & Yipeng Jiang & Zhenchao Zhang & Zeyang Li, 2022. "Relationship between the Chinese Main Air Transport Network and COVID-19 Pandemic Transmission," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(13), pages 1-17, July.
    14. Czerny, Achim I. & Fu, Xiaowen & Lei, Zheng & Oum, Tae H., 2021. "Post pandemic aviation market recovery: Experience and lessons from China," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    15. Sun, Xiaoqian & Wandelt, Sebastian & Zhang, Anming, 2022. "STARTUPS: Founding airlines during COVID-19 - A hopeless endeavor or an ample opportunity for a better aviation system?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 10-19.
    16. Sun, Xiaoqian & Wandelt, Sebastian & Zheng, Changhong & Zhang, Anming, 2021. "COVID-19 pandemic and air transportation: Successfully navigating the paper hurricane," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    17. Kuo, Pei-Fen & Brawiswa Putra, I Gede & Setiawan, Faizal Azmi & Wen, Tzai-Hung & Chiu, Chui-Sheng & Sulistyah, Umroh Dian, 2022. "The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on O-D flow and airport networks in the origin country and in Northeast Asia," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    18. Sabina Marchetti & Alessandro Borin & Francesco Paolo Conteduca & Giuseppe Ilardi & Giorgio Guzzetta & Piero Poletti & Patrizio Pezzotti & Antonino Bella & Paola Stefanelli & Flavia Riccardo & Stefano, 2022. "An Epidemic Model for SARS-CoV-2 with Self-Adaptive Containment Measures," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 681, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    19. Zhang, Yahua & Zhang, Anming, 2021. "COVID-19 and bailout policy: The case of Virgin Australia," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 174-181.
    20. Zhang, Junyi & Zhang, Runsen & Ding, Hongxiang & Li, Shuangjin & Liu, Rui & Ma, Shuang & Zhai, Baoxin & Kashima, Saori & Hayashi, Yoshitsugu, 2021. "Effects of transport-related COVID-19 policy measures: A case study of six developed countries," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 37-57.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:127:y:2022:i:c:p:22-30. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/30473/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.