IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0012763.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Predictive Power of Air Travel and Socio-Economic Data for Early Pandemic Spread

Author

Listed:
  • Parviez Hosseini
  • Susanne H Sokolow
  • Kurt J Vandegrift
  • A Marm Kilpatrick
  • Peter Daszak

Abstract

Background: Controlling the pandemic spread of newly emerging diseases requires rapid, targeted allocation of limited resources among nations. Critical, early control steps would be greatly enhanced if the key risk factors can be identified that accurately predict early disease spread immediately after emergence. Methodology/Principal Findings: Here, we examine the role of travel, trade, and national healthcare resources in predicting the emergence and initial spread of 2009 A/H1N1 influenza. We find that incorporating national healthcare resource data into our analyses allowed a much greater capacity to predict the international spread of this virus. In countries with lower healthcare resources, the reporting of 2009 A/H1N1 cases was significantly delayed, likely reflecting a lower capacity for testing and reporting, as well as other socio-political issues. We also report substantial international trade in live swine and poultry in the decade preceding the pandemic which may have contributed to the emergence and mixed genotype of this pandemic strain. However, the lack of knowledge of recent evolution of each H1N1 viral gene segment precludes the use of this approach to determine viral origins. Conclusions/Significance: We conclude that strategies to prevent pandemic influenza virus emergence and spread in the future should include: 1) enhanced surveillance for strains resulting from reassortment in traded livestock; 2) rapid deployment of control measures in the initial spreading phase to countries where travel data predict the pathogen will reach and to countries where lower healthcare resources will likely cause delays in reporting. Our results highlight the benefits, for all parties, when higher income countries provide additional healthcare resources for lower income countries, particularly those that have high air traffic volumes. In particular, international authorities should prioritize aid to those poorest countries where both the risk of emerging infectious diseases and air traffic volume is highest. This strategy will result in earlier detection of pathogens and a reduction in the impact of future pandemics.

Suggested Citation

  • Parviez Hosseini & Susanne H Sokolow & Kurt J Vandegrift & A Marm Kilpatrick & Peter Daszak, 2010. "Predictive Power of Air Travel and Socio-Economic Data for Early Pandemic Spread," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(9), pages 1-8, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0012763
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0012763
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0012763
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0012763&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0012763?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mounir Amdaoud & Giuseppe Arcuri & Nadine Levratto, 2021. "Are regions equal in adversity? A spatial analysis of spread and dynamics of COVID-19 in Europe," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 22(4), pages 629-642, June.
    2. Ben Balmford & James D. Annan & Julia C. Hargreaves & Marina Altoè & Ian J. Bateman, 2020. "Cross-Country Comparisons of Covid-19: Policy, Politics and the Price of Life," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(4), pages 525-551, August.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0012763. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.