IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/transa/v177y2023ics0965856423002550.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Aviation resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic: A case study of the European aviation market

Author

Listed:
  • Su, Junbiao
  • Wu, Hanjun
  • Tsui, Kan Wai Hong
  • Fu, Xiaowen
  • Lei, Zheng

Abstract

The European aviation industry experienced an unprecedented disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, which may have a profound impact on the industry in the years to come. An investigation of the European aviation market’s performance during the pandemic and the recovery pattern is very important. Such an analysis provides an assessment of the aviation industry’s actual resilience against large-scale disruptions thus that the sector can be better prepared for future disruptions and challenges. More importantly, it contributes to a better understanding of the best business practices and industry policies in a dynamic aviation environment, and how the aviation industry may sustain growth in the years to come. For these purposes, this study first presents an overview of the European aviation market’s performance for the period of 2019–2020. In general, aviation connectivity (airports and airlines) recovered to around 60 % of the 2019 level, but less than 40 % in terms of flight movements at the end of 2020. Second, an ordered Probit model is applied to investigate the driving factors for airport and airline resilience in the European aviation market, respectively. Four key findings are obtained: (i) the number of flights is an important indicator of airport and airline resilience/recovery performance; (ii) higher airline concentration at an airport might have improved the airport’s recovery from the COVID-19 crisis. On the airline side, an airline’s higher concentration of flights at airports tends to benefit its resilience (iii) the implementation of the airport slot waiver policy, which suspended the “use it or lose it” rules, had positive impacts on airline resilience; (iv) airports with higher shares of full-service airlines (FSAs) services, or more low-cost carriers (LCCs) in service, are better positioned in recovery. There are no systematic differences caused by carrier types. Overall, our study of the European aviation market reveals positive resilience effects of market concentration and firm scale. The findings reveal another dimension in assessing the effects of market concentration and scale, in addition to their implications on competition and market power.

Suggested Citation

  • Su, Junbiao & Wu, Hanjun & Tsui, Kan Wai Hong & Fu, Xiaowen & Lei, Zheng, 2023. "Aviation resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic: A case study of the European aviation market," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:177:y:2023:i:c:s0965856423002550
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2023.103835
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856423002550
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tra.2023.103835?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Amankwah-Amoah, Joseph, 2020. "Stepping Up and Stepping Out of COVID-19: New Challenges for Environmental Sustainability Policies in the Global Airline Industry," MPRA Paper 101491, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Hangjun Yang & Anming Zhang & Xiaowen Fu, 2015. "Determinants of Airport-Airline Vertical Arrangements: Analytical Results and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 49(3), pages 438-453, July.
    3. Choi, Jong Hae, 2021. "Changes in airport operating procedures and implications for airport strategies post-COVID-19," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    4. Dobruszkes, Frédéric & Dehon, Catherine & Givoni, Moshe, 2014. "Does European high-speed rail affect the current level of air services? An EU-wide analysis," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 461-475.
    5. Linden, Erik, 2021. "Pandemics and environmental shocks: What aviation managers should learn from COVID-19 for long-term planning," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    6. Alderighi, Marco & Cento, Alessandro & Nijkamp, Peter & Rietveld, Piet, 2012. "Competition in the European aviation market: the entry of low-cost airlines," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 223-233.
    7. Xiaowen Fu & Tae H. Oum, 2015. "Dominant Carrier Performance and International Liberalisation: The case of North East Asia," International Transport Forum Discussion Papers 2015/3, OECD Publishing.
    8. Pereira, Deivison da Silveira & Soares de Mello, João Carlos C.B., 2021. "Efficiency evaluation of Brazilian airlines operations considering the Covid-19 outbreak," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    9. Sun, Xiaoqian & Wandelt, Sebastian & Zhang, Anming, 2022. "Ghostbusters: Hunting abnormal flights in Europe during COVID-19," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 203-217.
    10. Tsui, Wai Hong Kan & Fu, Xiaowen & Yin, Chuanzhong & Zhang, Huaxin, 2021. "Hong Kong's aviation and tourism growth - An empirical investigation," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    11. Salesi, Vinolia Kilinaivoni & Kan Tsui, Wai Hong & Fu, Xiaowen & Gilbey, Andrew, 2022. "Strategies for South Pacific Region to address future pandemics: Implications for the aviation and tourism sectors based on a systematic literature review (2010–2021)," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 107-126.
    12. Zhang, Junyi & Hayashi, Yoshitsugu & Frank, Lawrence D., 2021. "COVID-19 and transport: Findings from a world-wide expert survey," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 68-85.
    13. Chen, Tiantian & Fu, Xiaowen & Hensher, David A. & Li, Zhi-Chun & Sze, N.N., 2022. "Air travel choice, online meeting and passenger heterogeneity – An international study on travellers’ preference during a pandemic," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 439-453.
    14. Zhang, Yahua & Zhang, Anming & Wang, Jiaoe, 2020. "Exploring the roles of high-speed train, air and coach services in the spread of COVID-19 in China," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 34-42.
    15. Fu, Xiaowen & Lei, Zheng & Wang, Kun & Yan, Jia, 2015. "Low cost carrier competition and route entry in an emerging but regulated aviation market – The case of China," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 3-16.
    16. Xiaowen Fu & Kan Wai Hong Tsui & Breno Sampaio & David Tan, 2021. "Do airport activities affect regional economies? Regional analysis of New Zealand’s airport system," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(4), pages 707-722, April.
    17. Miani, Peter & Kille, Tarryn & Lee, Seung-Yong & Zhang, Yahua & Bates, Paul Raymond, 2021. "The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on current tertiary aviation education and future careers: Students’ perspective," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    18. Chen, Tiantian & Fu, Xiaowen & Hensher, David A. & Li, Zhi-Chun & Sze, N.N., 2022. "The effect of online meeting and health screening on business travel: A stated preference case study in Hong Kong," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    19. Xiaowen Fu & Tae H. Oum & Jia Yan, 2014. "An Analysis of Travel Demand in Japan's Intercity Market Empirical Estimation and Policy Simulation," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 48(1), pages 97-113, January.
    20. Yang, Min & Wang, Zheyuan & Cheng, Long & Chen, Enhui, 2022. "Exploring satisfaction with air-HSR intermodal services: A Bayesian network analysis," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 69-89.
    21. Tu, Ningwen & Li, Zhi-Chun & Fu, Xiaowen & Lei, Zheng, 2020. "Airline network competition in inter-continental market," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    22. Gudmundsson, S.V. & Cattaneo, M. & Redondi, R., 2021. "Forecasting temporal world recovery in air transport markets in the presence of large economic shocks: The case of COVID-19," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    23. Hou, Meng & Wang, Kun & Yang, Hangjun, 2021. "Hub airport slot Re-allocation and subsidy policy to speed up air traffic recovery amid COVID-19 pandemic --- case on the Chinese airline market," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    24. Andreana, Gianmarco & Gualini, Andrea & Martini, Gianmaria & Porta, Flavio & Scotti, Davide, 2021. "The disruptive impact of COVID-19 on air transportation: An ITS econometric analysis," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    25. Sun, Xiaoqian & Wandelt, Sebastian & Zhang, Anming, 2021. "On the degree of synchronization between air transport connectivity and COVID-19 cases at worldwide level," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 115-123.
    26. Lichun Chen & Elise Miller-Hooks, 2012. "Resilience: An Indicator of Recovery Capability in Intermodal Freight Transport," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(1), pages 109-123, February.
    27. Czerny, Achim I. & Fu, Xiaowen & Lei, Zheng & Oum, Tae H., 2021. "Post pandemic aviation market recovery: Experience and lessons from China," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    28. Dunn, Sarah & Wilkinson, Sean M., 2016. "Increasing the resilience of air traffic networks using a network graph theory approach," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 39-50.
    29. Alessandro Manello & Davide Scotti & Nicola Volta, 2022. "Air connection dropouts and isolation risks across European regions," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(3), pages 447-458, March.
    30. Liu, Anyu & Kim, Yoo Ri & O'Connell, John Frankie, 2021. "COVID-19 and the aviation industry: The interrelationship between the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and the frequency of flights on the EU market," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    31. Fu, Xiaowen & Lei, Zheng & Liu, Shaoxuan & Wang, Kun & Yan, Jia, 2020. "On-time performance policy in the Chinese aviation market - An innovation or disruption?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 14-23.
    32. Dube, Kaitano & Nhamo, Godwell & Chikodzi, David, 2021. "COVID-19 pandemic and prospects for recovery of the global aviation industry," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    33. Jiuxia Guo & Xinping Zhu & Chenxi Liu & ShuzhiSam Ge, 2021. "Resilience Modeling Method of Airport Network Affected by Global Public Health Events," Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Hindawi, vol. 2021, pages 1-13, February.
    34. Wong, Allen & Tan, Sijian & Chandramouleeswaran, Keshav Ram & Tran, Huy T., 2020. "Data-driven analysis of resilience in airline networks," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    35. Budd, Thomas & Suau-Sanchez, Pere & Halpern, Nigel & Mwesiumo, Deodat & Bråthen, Svein, 2021. "An assessment of air passenger confidence a year into the COVID-19 crisis: A segmentation analysis of passengers in Norway," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    36. Su, Min & Luan, Weixin & Fu, Xiaowen & Yang, Zaili & Zhang, Rui, 2020. "The competition effects of low-cost carriers and high-speed rail on the Chinese aviation market," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 37-46.
    37. Sun, Xiaoqian & Wandelt, Sebastian & Zhang, Anming, 2020. "How did COVID-19 impact air transportation? A first peek through the lens of complex networks," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    38. J. Tom Mueller & Kathryn McConnell & Paul Berne Burow & Katie Pofahl & Alexis A. Merdjanoff & Justin Farrell, 2021. "Impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on rural America," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 118(1), pages 2019378118-, January.
    39. Zhang, Hanxiang & Czerny, Achim I. & Grimme, Wolfgang & Niemeier, Hans-Martin, 2023. "The big three EU Low Cost Carriers before and during the Covid-19 pandemic: Network overlaps and airfare effects," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    40. Tavalaei, M. Mahdi & Santalo, Juan, 2019. "Pure versus hybrid competitive strategies in the airport industry," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 444-455.
    41. Tanrıverdi, Gökhan & Bakır, Mahmut & Merkert, Rico, 2020. "What can we learn from the JATM literature for the future of aviation post Covid-19? - A bibliometric and visualization analysis," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    42. Bauer, Linus Benjamin & Bloch, Daniel & Merkert, Rico, 2020. "Ultra Long-Haul: An emerging business model accelerated by COVID-19," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    43. Ng, Kam To & Fu, Xiaowen & Hanaoka, Shinya & Oum, Tae Hoon, 2022. "Japanese aviation market performance during the COVID-19 pandemic - Analyzing airline yield and competition in the domestic market," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 237-247.
    44. Tisdall, Lucas & Zhang, Yahua & Zhang, Anming, 2021. "COVID-19 impacts on general aviation – Comparative experiences, governmental responses and policy imperatives," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 273-280.
    45. Xiaoqian Sun & Sebastian Wandelt, 2021. "Robustness of Air Transportation as Complex Networks:Systematic Review of 15 Years of Research and Outlook into the Future," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-19, June.
    46. Fu, Xiaowen & Jin, Huan & Liu, Shaoxuan & Oum, Tae H. & Yan, Jia, 2019. "Exploring network effects of point-to-point networks: An investigation of the spatial patterns of Southwest Airlines’ network," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 36-45.
    47. Tretheway, Michael W. & Markhvida, Kate, 2014. "The aviation value chain: Economic returns and policy issues," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 3-16.
    48. Suau-Sanchez, Pere & Voltes-Dorta, Augusto & Cugueró-Escofet, Natàlia, 2020. "An early assessment of the impact of COVID-19 on air transport: Just another crisis or the end of aviation as we know it?," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sun, Xiaoqian & Wandelt, Sebastian & Zhang, Anming, 2022. "STARTUPS: Founding airlines during COVID-19 - A hopeless endeavor or an ample opportunity for a better aviation system?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 10-19.
    2. Chen, Yuting & Fuellhart, Kurt & Grubesic, Tony H. & Zhang, Shengrun & Witlox, Frank, 2024. "An analysis of the context factors influencing the diverse response of airports to COVID-19 using panel and group regression," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    3. Su, Min & Hu, Baoyang & Luan, Weixin & Tian, Chuang, 2022. "Effects of COVID-19 on China's civil aviation passenger transport market," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    4. He, Hang & Wu, Hanjun & Tsui, Kan Wai Hong & Wang, Biao & Fu, Xiaowen, 2024. "Spatiotemporal evolution of air cargo networks and its impact on economic development - An analysis of China's domestic market before and during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    5. Chen, Yuting & Fuellhart, Kurt & Grubesic, Tony H. & Zhang, Shengrun & Witlox, Frank, 2023. "Diverging spatiotemporal responses to COVID-19Â by airports: Evidence from China," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    6. Zhang, Linfeng & Yang, Hangjun & Wang, Kun & Bian, Lei & Zhang, Xian, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 on airline passenger travel behavior: An exploratory analysis on the Chinese aviation market," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    7. Sun, Xiaoqian & Wandelt, Sebastian & Zheng, Changhong & Zhang, Anming, 2021. "COVID-19 pandemic and air transportation: Successfully navigating the paper hurricane," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    8. Sugishita, Kashin & Mizutani, Hiroki & Hanaoka, Shinya, 2024. "Disruption and recovery of the US domestic airline networks during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    9. Yiu, Cho Yin & Ng, Kam K.H. & Yu, Simon C.M. & Yu, Chun Wah, 2022. "Sustaining aviation workforce after the pandemic: Evidence from Hong Kong aviation students toward skills, specialised training, and career prospects through a mixed-method approach," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 179-192.
    10. Sun, Xiaoqian & Wandelt, Sebastian & Zhang, Anming, 2021. "Technological and educational challenges towards pandemic-resilient aviation," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 104-115.
    11. Kim, Myeonghyeon & Sohn, Jeongwoong, 2022. "Passenger, airline, and policy responses to the COVID-19 crisis: The case of South Korea," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    12. Budd, Thomas & Suau-Sanchez, Pere & Halpern, Nigel & Mwesiumo, Deodat & Bråthen, Svein, 2021. "An assessment of air passenger confidence a year into the COVID-19 crisis: A segmentation analysis of passengers in Norway," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    13. Liao, Maozhu & Wu, Chuntao & Yan, Hongmeng, 2022. "Recovery of Chinese low-cost carriers after the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    14. Wandelt, Sebastian & Sun, Xiaoqian & Zhang, Anming, 2023. "On the contagion leakage via incoming flights during China’s aviation policies in the fight against COVID-19," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    15. Salesi, Vinolia Kilinaivoni & Kan Tsui, Wai Hong & Fu, Xiaowen & Gilbey, Andrew, 2022. "Strategies for South Pacific Region to address future pandemics: Implications for the aviation and tourism sectors based on a systematic literature review (2010–2021)," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 107-126.
    16. Czerny, Achim I. & Fu, Xiaowen & Lei, Zheng & Oum, Tae H., 2021. "Post pandemic aviation market recovery: Experience and lessons from China," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    17. Kuo, Pei-Fen & Brawiswa Putra, I Gede & Setiawan, Faizal Azmi & Wen, Tzai-Hung & Chiu, Chui-Sheng & Sulistyah, Umroh Dian, 2022. "The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on O-D flow and airport networks in the origin country and in Northeast Asia," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    18. Chen, Tiantian & Fu, Xiaowen & Hensher, David A. & Li, Zhi-Chun & Sze, N.N., 2024. "Effects of proactive and reactive health control measures on public transport preferences of passengers – A stated preference study during the COVID-19 pandemic," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 175-192.
    19. Li, Siping & Xu, Gangyan & Zhou, Yaoming, 2023. "How air transport networks respond to long-lasting disruptive events like COVID-19: The first step toward long-term resilience," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    20. Ng, Kam To & Fu, Xiaowen & Hanaoka, Shinya & Oum, Tae Hoon, 2022. "Japanese aviation market performance during the COVID-19 pandemic - Analyzing airline yield and competition in the domestic market," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 237-247.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:177:y:2023:i:c:s0965856423002550. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/547/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.