IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jotrge/v123y2025ics0966692325000079.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Spatial temporal modelling of air traffic network evolution and resilience enhancement in response to the dynamic coupling of propagation outbreaks

Author

Listed:
  • Zhu, Yipeng
  • Ng, Kam K.H.

Abstract

COVID-19 has a great impact on the volume and frequency of air transportation. To minimise the transmission risk, civil aviation authorities imposed travel restrictions and led to changes of the global and regional air traffic network (ATN). Considering the potential for future similar propagable events that may challenge the operation of the ATN again, it is crucial to develop more efficient air route adjustment schemes (ARAS) to better respond to propagable outbreaks. This study first examines the development patterns of propagable events and constructs a spatial temporal evolution model under the coupling of event development and traffic flow. Based on the dynamic process of the spatial temporal evolution model, the study explores the resilience assessment method of the ATN throughout the entire cycle of events. This study proposes a methodological framework to intervene in the air route reduction and recovery of any two connected airport pairs based on the prioritised network centrality (PNC) during all rising and descending phases of propagatable outbreaks to achieve overall ATN network resilience enhancement, and the model is validated by the case under COVID-19 background. The numerical study shows that the adjustment of air route capacity has a significant impact on the control of the introduction of cases in the initial phase. However, there is no significant impact on controlling the risk of propagation if the destined regions face widespread local propagation. This explains that travel restriction and quarantine of the ATN do not contribute to controlling the local propagation of regions but can ameliorate the severity of the overall outbreak at the network level by affecting the spreading sequence across the network. To improve the network resilience in response to propagable outbreaks, The air route adjustment scheme considering prioritised network centrality (ARAS-PNC) approach can capitalise on the impact of network performance and outbreak progression and respond better at the network level with greater network efficiency and lower network-wide effective case rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhu, Yipeng & Ng, Kam K.H., 2025. "Spatial temporal modelling of air traffic network evolution and resilience enhancement in response to the dynamic coupling of propagation outbreaks," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jotrge:v:123:y:2025:i:c:s0966692325000079
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2025.104116
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0966692325000079
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2025.104116?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cooper, Ian & Mondal, Argha & Antonopoulos, Chris G., 2020. "A SIR model assumption for the spread of COVID-19 in different communities," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    2. Janić, Milan, 2015. "Reprint of “Modelling the resilience, friability and costs of an air transport network affected by a large-scale disruptive event”," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 77-92.
    3. Deng, Yu & Zhang, Yahua & Wang, Kun, 2022. "An analysis of the Chinese scheduled freighter network during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    4. Li, Siping & Zhou, Yaoming & Kundu, Tanmoy & Zhang, Fangni, 2021. "Impact of entry restriction policies on international air transport connectivity during COVID-19 pandemic," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    5. Yongling Li & Jiaoe Wang, 2024. "The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on air passenger travel: a focus on empirical findings," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(2), pages 461-483, March.
    6. Wandelt, Sebastian & Xu, Yifan & Sun, Xiaoqian, 2023. "Measuring node importance in air transportation systems: On the quality of complex network estimations," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    7. Dey Tirtha, Sudipta & Bhowmik, Tanmoy & Eluru, Naveen, 2022. "An airport level framework for examining the impact of COVID-19 on airline demand," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 169-181.
    8. Su, Junbiao & Wu, Hanjun & Tsui, Kan Wai Hong & Fu, Xiaowen & Lei, Zheng, 2023. "Aviation resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic: A case study of the European aviation market," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    9. Lordan, Oriol & Sallan, Jose M. & Simo, Pep, 2014. "Study of the topology and robustness of airline route networks from the complex network approach: a survey and research agenda," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 112-120.
    10. Du, Wen-Bo & Zhou, Xing-Lian & Lordan, Oriol & Wang, Zhen & Zhao, Chen & Zhu, Yan-Bo, 2016. "Analysis of the Chinese Airline Network as multi-layer networks," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 108-116.
    11. Sun, Xiaoqian & Wandelt, Sebastian & Zheng, Changhong & Zhang, Anming, 2021. "COVID-19 pandemic and air transportation: Successfully navigating the paper hurricane," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    12. Gualini, Andrea & Zou, Li & Dresner, Martin, 2023. "Airline strategies during the pandemic: What worked?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    13. Bombelli, Alessandro & Sallan, Jose Maria, 2023. "Analysis of the effect of extreme weather on the US domestic air network. A delay and cancellation propagation network approach," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    14. Zhou, Yaoming & Kundu, Tanmoy & Qin, Wei & Goh, Mark & Sheu, Jiuh-Biing, 2021. "Vulnerability of the worldwide air transportation network to global catastrophes such as COVID-19," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    15. de Palma, André & Vosough, Shaghayegh & Liao, Feixiong, 2022. "An overview of effects of COVID-19 on mobility and lifestyle: 18 months since the outbreak," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 372-397.
    16. Wang, Jinghua & Zhang, Zhao & Lu, Guangquan & Yu, Bin & Zhan, Chengyu & Cai, Jingsong, 2023. "Analyzing multiple COVID-19 outbreak impacts: A case study based on Chinese national air passenger flow," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    17. He, Hang & Wu, Hanjun & Tsui, Kan Wai Hong & Wang, Biao & Fu, Xiaowen, 2024. "Spatiotemporal evolution of air cargo networks and its impact on economic development - An analysis of China's domestic market before and during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    18. Zhou, Yaoming & Wang, Junwei & Huang, George Q., 2019. "Efficiency and robustness of weighted air transport networks," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 14-26.
    19. Li, Siping & Xu, Gangyan & Zhou, Yaoming, 2023. "How air transport networks respond to long-lasting disruptive events like COVID-19: The first step toward long-term resilience," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    20. Warnock-Smith, David & Graham, Anne & O'Connell, John F. & Efthymiou, Marina, 2021. "Impact of COVID-19 on air transport passenger markets: Examining evidence from the Chinese market," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    21. Nakamura, Hiroki & Managi, Shunsuke, 2020. "Airport risk of importation and exportation of the COVID-19 pandemic," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 40-47.
    22. Zhang, X. & Miller-Hooks, E. & Denny, K., 2015. "Assessing the role of network topology in transportation network resilience," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 35-45.
    23. Zhang, Lu & Gong, Jiaying & Yang, Yu, 2025. "How has the COVID-19 pandemic reshaped the aviation network? A comparative pre- and during-pandemic analysis," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 228-244.
    24. Sun, Xiaoqian & Wandelt, Sebastian & Zhang, Anming, 2021. "On the degree of synchronization between air transport connectivity and COVID-19 cases at worldwide level," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 115-123.
    25. Czerny, Achim I. & Fu, Xiaowen & Lei, Zheng & Oum, Tae H., 2021. "Post pandemic aviation market recovery: Experience and lessons from China," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    26. Dunn, Sarah & Wilkinson, Sean M., 2016. "Increasing the resilience of air traffic networks using a network graph theory approach," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 39-50.
    27. Armaan Kamat & Max Z. Li, 2024. "Impacts of COVID-19 on Air Traffic Control and Air Traffic Management: A Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(15), pages 1-19, August.
    28. Wong, Allen & Tan, Sijian & Chandramouleeswaran, Keshav Ram & Tran, Huy T., 2020. "Data-driven analysis of resilience in airline networks," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    29. Wang, Xinglong & Peng, Jinhan & Tang, Junqing & Lu, Qiuchen & Li, Xiaowei, 2022. "Investigating the impact of adding new airline routes on air transportation resilience in China," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 79-95.
    30. Sun, Xiaoqian & Wandelt, Sebastian & Zhang, Anming, 2020. "How did COVID-19 impact air transportation? A first peek through the lens of complex networks," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    31. Zhang, Linfeng & Hou, Meng & Liu, Yichen & Wang, Kun & Yang, Hangjun, 2022. "Measuring Beijing's international air connectivity and suggestions for improvement post COVID-19," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 132-143.
    32. Gu, Yu & Fu, Xiao & Liu, Zhiyuan & Xu, Xiangdong & Chen, Anthony, 2020. "Performance of transportation network under perturbations: Reliability, vulnerability, and resilience," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    33. Leonidas Siozos-Rousoulis & Dimitri Robert & Wouter Verbeke, 2021. "A study of the U.S. domestic air transportation network: temporal evolution of network topology and robustness from 2001 to 2016," Journal of Transportation Security, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 55-78, June.
    34. Wang, Ning & Gao, Ying & He, Jia-tao & Yang, Jun, 2022. "Robustness evaluation of the air cargo network considering node importance and attack cost," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    35. Mueller, Falko, 2022. "Examining COVID-19-triggered changes in spatial connectivity patterns in the European air transport network up to June 2021," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    36. Janić, Milan, 2015. "Modelling the resilience, friability and costs of an air transport network affected by a large-scale disruptive event," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 1-16.
    37. Chengpeng Wan & Zaili Yang & Di Zhang & Xinping Yan & Shiqi Fan, 2018. "Resilience in transportation systems: a systematic review and future directions," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 479-498, July.
    38. Suau-Sanchez, Pere & Voltes-Dorta, Augusto & Cugueró-Escofet, Natàlia, 2020. "An early assessment of the impact of COVID-19 on air transport: Just another crisis or the end of aviation as we know it?," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Li, Siping & Xu, Gangyan & Zhou, Yaoming, 2023. "How air transport networks respond to long-lasting disruptive events like COVID-19: The first step toward long-term resilience," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    2. Sugishita, Kashin & Mizutani, Hiroki & Hanaoka, Shinya, 2024. "Disruption and recovery of the US domestic airline networks during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    3. Deng, Yu & Zhang, Yahua & Wang, Kun & He, Yulu, 2025. "Navigating through and beyond the COVID-19 crisis: Evaluating the resilience of Chinese international air freighter networks," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 285-297.
    4. Wu, Xiangru & Wang, Kun & Fu, Xiaowen & Dong, Kangyin & Sun, Xiaoqian & Hoon Oum, Tae, 2025. "How does COVID-19 pandemic affect airline’s route choice and market contact? − Full-service carriers vs. low-cost carriers in China," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    5. Li, Siping & Zhou, Yaoming & Kundu, Tanmoy & Sheu, Jiuh-Biing, 2021. "Spatiotemporal variation of the worldwide air transportation network induced by COVID-19 pandemic in 2020," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 168-184.
    6. Chen, Yuting & Fuellhart, Kurt & Grubesic, Tony H. & Zhang, Shengrun & Witlox, Frank, 2024. "An analysis of the context factors influencing the diverse response of airports to COVID-19 using panel and group regression," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    7. Pan, Shouzheng & Yan, Hai & He, Jia & He, Zhengbing, 2021. "Vulnerability and resilience of transportation systems: A recent literature review," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 581(C).
    8. Zhang, Lu & Gong, Jiaying & Yang, Yu, 2025. "How has the COVID-19 pandemic reshaped the aviation network? A comparative pre- and during-pandemic analysis," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 228-244.
    9. Wang, Junwei & Zhou, Yaoming & Huang, George Q., 2019. "Alternative pair in the airport network," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 408-418.
    10. Zhou, Yaoming & Kundu, Tanmoy & Qin, Wei & Goh, Mark & Sheu, Jiuh-Biing, 2021. "Vulnerability of the worldwide air transportation network to global catastrophes such as COVID-19," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    11. Borsati, Mattia & Fageda, Xavier, 2024. "Airline price responses in the face of demand shocks: European lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    12. Su, Junbiao & Wu, Hanjun & Tsui, Kan Wai Hong & Fu, Xiaowen & Lei, Zheng, 2023. "Aviation resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic: A case study of the European aviation market," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    13. Kuo, Pei-Fen & Brawiswa Putra, I Gede & Setiawan, Faizal Azmi & Wen, Tzai-Hung & Chiu, Chui-Sheng & Sulistyah, Umroh Dian, 2022. "The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on O-D flow and airport networks in the origin country and in Northeast Asia," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    14. Liao, Maozhu & Wu, Chuntao & Yan, Hongmeng, 2022. "Recovery of Chinese low-cost carriers after the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    15. Xiaoqian Sun & Sebastian Wandelt, 2021. "Robustness of Air Transportation as Complex Networks:Systematic Review of 15 Years of Research and Outlook into the Future," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-19, June.
    16. Su, Min & Hu, Baoyang & Luan, Weixin & Tian, Chuang, 2022. "Effects of COVID-19 on China's civil aviation passenger transport market," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    17. Sun, Xiaoqian & Wandelt, Sebastian & Zhang, Anming, 2021. "Technological and educational challenges towards pandemic-resilient aviation," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 104-115.
    18. Zheng, Shiyuan & Wang, Kun & Jiang, Changmin, 2024. "Converting passenger aircraft into cargo planes under volatile market demand," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    19. Li, Chi & Mao, Jianfeng & Li, Lingyi & Wu, Jingxuan & Zhang, Lianmin & Zhu, Jianyu & Pan, Zibin, 2024. "Flight delay propagation modeling: Data, Methods, and Future opportunities," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    20. Li, Siping & Zhou, Yaoming & Kundu, Tanmoy & Zhang, Fangni, 2021. "Impact of entry restriction policies on international air transport connectivity during COVID-19 pandemic," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jotrge:v:123:y:2025:i:c:s0966692325000079. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-transport-geography .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.