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Location is a major barrier for transferring US fossil fuel employment to green jobs

Author

Listed:
  • Junghyun Lim

    (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill)

  • Michaël Aklin

    (College of Management of Technology, EPFL
    Enterprise for Society)

  • Morgan R. Frank

    (University of Pittsburgh
    Stanford University
    Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

Abstract

The green energy revolution may displace 1.7 million fossil fuel workers in the US but a Just Transition to emerging green industry jobs offers possibilities for re-employing these workers. Here, using 14 years of power plant data from the US Energy Information Administration, job transition data from the Census Bureau, as well as employment and skills data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, we assess whether people employed in fossil fuel resource extraction today are co-located and have the transferable skills to switch to expected green jobs. We find that these workers could leverage their mobility to other industries and have similar skills to green occupations. However, today’s fossil fuel extraction workers are not co-located with current sources of green energy production. Further, after accounting for federal employment projections, fossil fuel extraction workers are mostly not located in the regions where green employment will grow despite attaining the appropriate skillsets. These results suggest a large barrier to a Just Transition since fossil fuel extraction workers have not historically exhibited geospatial mobility. While stakeholders focus on re-skilling fossil fuel extraction workers, this analysis shows that co-location with emerging green employment will be the larger barrier to a Just Transition.

Suggested Citation

  • Junghyun Lim & Michaël Aklin & Morgan R. Frank, 2023. "Location is a major barrier for transferring US fossil fuel employment to green jobs," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-41133-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-41133-9
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    Cited by:

    1. Gazmararian, Alexander F., 2024. "Fossil fuel communities support climate policy coupled with just transition assistance," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    2. Andrew Weng & Omar Y. Ahmed & Gabriel Ehrlich & Anna Stefanopoulou, 2024. "Higher labor intensity in US automotive assembly plants after transitioning to electric vehicles," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Pelz, Setu & Krumm, Alexandra & Aklin, Michaël & Nandan, Vagisha & Urpelainen, Johannes, 2024. "The spatial and economic footprint of the coal industry on rural livelihoods in Jharkhand, India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    4. Zhang, Ruining & Li, Weilong & Li, Yiheng & Li, Hui, 2024. "Job losses or gains? The impact of supply-side energy transition on employment in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 308(C).
    5. Raimi, Daniel & Greenspon, Jacob, 2025. "Finding the Right Fit: What Jobs Offer a Good Match for Fossil Fuel Workers’ Skills?," RFF Working Paper Series 25-06, Resources for the Future.
    6. Anna K. Berryman & Joris Bucker & Fernanda Senra de Moura & Pete Barbrook-Johnson & Marek Hanusch & Penny Mealy & J. Doyne Farmer & R. Maria del Rio-Chanona, 2025. "Skill and spatial mismatches for sustainable development in Brazil," Papers 2503.05310, arXiv.org.
    7. Becerra, Oscar & Piñeros, Juana, 2024. "Quantifying Green Job Potential in Colombia: A Task-Based Approach," Documentos CEDE 21270, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    8. Shwetlena Sabarwal & Sergio Venegas Marin & Marla Spivack & Diego Ambasz, 2024. "Choosing Our Future," World Bank Publications - Reports 42098, The World Bank Group.
    9. Lou, Jiehong & Hu, Guangxiao & Shen, Xingchi & Cui, Ryna Yiyun, 2025. "Quantifying the economy-wide employment effects of coal-fired power plants: Two different cases China and the United States," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 377(PC).
    10. Jin, Yi & Yang, Jialiang & Feng, Cuiyang & Li, Yingzhu, 2024. "The employment impacts of fossil fuel trade across cities in China: A telecoupling perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
    11. Yijing Wang & Rong Wang & Katsumasa Tanaka & Philippe Ciais & Josep Penuelas & Yves Balkanski & Jordi Sardans & Didier Hauglustaine & Junji Cao & Jianmin Chen & Lin Wang & Xu Tang & Renhe Zhang, 2025. "Global spatiotemporal optimization of photovoltaic and wind power to achieve the Paris Agreement targets," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-19, December.

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