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Parametrikus nyugdíjreformok és életciklus-munkakínálat
[Parametric pension reforms and life-cycle labour supply]

Author

Listed:
  • Major, Klára
  • Varga, Gergely

Abstract

A társadalombiztosítási nyugdíjrendszer finanszírozása pusztán a demográfiai folyamatok következtében is jelentős terhet ró majd a költségvetésére, amin a különböző parametrikus és paradigmatikus nyugdíjreformok enyhíthetnek. A reformok azonban hosszú távon olyan viselkedési, munkakínálati reakciókat válthatnak ki, amelyek alapvetően változtatják meg a költségvetési hatásokat. Az 1999 és 2009 között Magyarországon megfigyelhető átlagos munka- és nyugdíjkorprofilok bemutatása után arra tettünk kísérletet, hogy mikroökonómiai alapon határozzuk meg néhány alapvető parametrikus nyugdíjreformnak a férfiak életciklus-munkakínálatára gyakorolt hatását. A modell paramétereit a magyar gazdaság 1999 és 2009 közötti jellemzőinek megfelelően kalibráltuk. Eredményeink szerint a helyettesítési ráta csökkentése, a nyugdíjkorhatár emelése és a svájci indexálás árindexálásra cserélése összességében számottevően növeli az egyes képzettségi csoportok munkakínálatát, s a fiatalabb korosztályok javára csoportosítja át az életciklus-munkakínálatot, míg a nyugdíj kiszámításához figyelembe vett évek számának megváltoztatása nem hoz jelentős aggregált hatást, és nem jár a munkakínálat korcsoportok közötti átcsoportosításával.* Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: D91, H55, J22, J26.

Suggested Citation

  • Major, Klára & Varga, Gergely, 2013. "Parametrikus nyugdíjreformok és életciklus-munkakínálat [Parametric pension reforms and life-cycle labour supply]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 1169-1207.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:1431
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    6. Andras Simonovits, 2009. "Hungarian Pension System and its Reform," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 0908, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Zsombor Cseres-Gergely, 2014. "What effect does increasing the retirement age have on the employment rate older women? Empirical evidence from retirement age hikes in Hungary during the 2000s," Budapest Working Papers on the Labour Market 1403, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    2. Varga, Gergely, 2014. "Demográfiai átmenet, gazdasági növekedés és a nyugdíjrendszer fenntarthatósága [Demographic transition, economic growth, and sustainability of the pension system]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 1279-1318.
    3. Simonovits, András, 2015. "Hogyan hat a nyugdíjszabályok hiányos ismerete a dolgozók döntéseire? [How does imperfect knowledge of pension rules affect workers decisions?]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(3), pages 263-283.
    4. Cseres-Gergely, Zsombor, 2015. "A 2000-es évek magyarországi nyugdíjkorhatár-emeléseinek azonnali hatása az érintett nők munkavállalására [The effect raising the retirement age has on the employment rate of older women. Empirical," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 652-673.
    5. Simonovits, András, 2015. "Hossz- és keresztmetszeti egyensúly az életpálya finanszírozásában [Longitudinal and cross-sectional equilibrium in lifetime financing]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 611-620.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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