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Parametrikus nyugdíjreformok és életciklus-munkakínálat
[Parametric pension reforms and life-cycle labour supply]

Author

Listed:
  • Major, Klára
  • Varga, Gergely

    ()

Abstract

A társadalombiztosítási nyugdíjrendszer finanszírozása pusztán a demográfiai folyamatok következtében is jelentős terhet ró majd a költségvetésére, amin a különböző parametrikus és paradigmatikus nyugdíjreformok enyhíthetnek. A reformok azonban hosszú távon olyan viselkedési, munkakínálati reakciókat válthatnak ki, amelyek alapvetően változtatják meg a költségvetési hatásokat. Az 1999 és 2009 között Magyarországon megfigyelhető átlagos munka- és nyugdíjkorprofilok bemutatása után arra tettünk kísérletet, hogy mikroökonómiai alapon határozzuk meg néhány alapvető parametrikus nyugdíjreformnak a férfiak életciklus-munkakínálatára gyakorolt hatását. A modell paramétereit a magyar gazdaság 1999 és 2009 közötti jellemzőinek megfelelően kalibráltuk. Eredményeink szerint a helyettesítési ráta csökkentése, a nyugdíjkorhatár emelése és a svájci indexálás árindexálásra cserélése összességében számottevően növeli az egyes képzettségi csoportok munkakínálatát, s a fiatalabb korosztályok javára csoportosítja át az életciklus-munkakínálatot, míg a nyugdíj kiszámításához figyelembe vett évek számának megváltoztatása nem hoz jelentős aggregált hatást, és nem jár a munkakínálat korcsoportok közötti átcsoportosításával.* Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: D91, H55, J22, J26.

Suggested Citation

  • Major, Klára & Varga, Gergely, 2013. "Parametrikus nyugdíjreformok és életciklus-munkakínálat [Parametric pension reforms and life-cycle labour supply]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 1169-1207.
  • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:1431
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andras Simonovits, 2009. "Hungarian Pension System and its Reform," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 0908, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    2. John Rust & Christopher Phelan, 1997. "How Social Security and Medicare Affect Retirement Behavior in a World of Incomplete Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(4), pages 781-832, July.
    3. Day Manoli & Kathleen J. Mullen & Mathis Wagner, 2015. "Policy Variation, Labor Supply Elasticities, And A Structural Model Of Retirement," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 53(4), pages 1702-1717, October.
    4. Zsombor Cseres-Gergely, 2007. "Inactivity in Hungary - the persistent effect of the pension system," Budapest Working Papers on the Labour Market 0701, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    5. Michael P. Keane, 2011. "Labor Supply and Taxes: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 961-1075, December.
    6. Benczúr, Péter, 2007. "Az adókulcsok hatása a különböző gazdasági szereplők viselkedésére - irodalmi összefoglaló [The effect of tax rates on the behaviour of various economic actors. A review of the literature]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(2), pages 125-141.
    7. Péter Benczúr & Gábor Kátay & Áron Kiss, 2012. "Assessing changes of the Hungarian tax and transfer system: A general-equilibrium microsimulation approach," MNB Working Papers 2012/7, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    8. Köllő, János & Augusztinovics, Mária, 2007. "Munkapiaci pálya és nyugdíj, 1970-2020 [Labour-market performance and pensions, 1970-2020]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 529-559.
    9. Augusztinovics, Mária & Máté, Levente & Gyombolai, Márton, 2008. "Járulékfizetés és nyugdíjjogosultság 1997-2006 [Pension contributions and acquired pension rights 1997-2006]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 665-689.
    10. Andras Simonovits, 2011. "International Economic Crisis and the Hungarian Pension Reform," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1111, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    11. Simonovits, András & Gál, Róbert Iván & Augusztinovics, Mária & Matits, Ágnes & Máté, Levente & Stahl, János, 2002. "A magyar nyugdíjrendszer az 1998-as reform előtt és után [The Hungarian pension system before and after the 1998 reform]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 473-517.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Zsombor Cseres-Gergely, 2014. "What effect does increasing the retirement age have on the employment rate older women? Empirical evidence from retirement age hikes in Hungary during the 2000s," Budapest Working Papers on the Labour Market 1403, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    2. Varga, Gergely, 2014. "Demográfiai átmenet, gazdasági növekedés és a nyugdíjrendszer fenntarthatósága [Demographic transition, economic growth, and sustainability of the pension system]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 1279-1318.
    3. Simonovits, András, 2015. "Hogyan hat a nyugdíjszabályok hiányos ismerete a dolgozók döntéseire? [How does imperfect knowledge of pension rules affect workers decisions?]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(3), pages 263-283.
    4. Cseres-Gergely, Zsombor, 2015. "A 2000-es évek magyarországi nyugdíjkorhatár-emeléseinek azonnali hatása az érintett nők munkavállalására [The effect raising the retirement age has on the employment rate of older women. Empirical," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 652-673.
    5. Simonovits, András, 2015. "Hossz- és keresztmetszeti egyensúly az életpálya finanszírozásában [Longitudinal and cross-sectional equilibrium in lifetime financing]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 611-620.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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