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Munkapiaci pálya és nyugdíj, 1970-2020
[Labour-market performance and pensions, 1970-2020]

Author

Listed:
  • Köllő, János
  • Augusztinovics, Mária

Abstract

A cikk a keresőképes életpályaszakasz szerepét vizsgálja a nyugdíjas szakasz alakulásában, azaz a naptári időben tekintett munkaerő-piaci fejlemények hatását a nyugdíjakra. A hosszmetszeti szemléletű vizsgálat azokra a születési évjáratokra összpontosít, amelyek a következő másfél évtizedben érik el az öregségi nyugdíj korhatárát. Megkísérli ezen évjáratok munkapiaci pályáját felvázolni, nemek és iskolai végzettség szerinti bontásban. Foglalkoztatottságuk és keresetük becslése elvezet nyugdíjjogosultságuk, valamint az általuk várható nyugdíj előreszámításához. A keresztmetszeti adatok felhasználásából eredő biztonytalanságok miatt a következtetések igen tág határok között adják meg azoknak a számát, akiket a jelenlegi és törvénybe iktatott szabályok kizárnak a jogosultságból, illetve akik rendkívül alacsony nyugdíjra számíthatnak. Annyit azonban kellő biztonsággal valószínűsítenek, hogy ebbe a két csoportba több száz ezer ember tartozik, főként az alacsony iskolai végzettségűek köréből. Journal of Economics Literature (JEL) kód: J21, J26.

Suggested Citation

  • Köllő, János & Augusztinovics, Mária, 2007. "Munkapiaci pálya és nyugdíj, 1970-2020 [Labour-market performance and pensions, 1970-2020]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 529-559.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:921
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. András Simonovits, 2003. "Modeling Pension Systems," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-0-230-59769-3, March.
    2. András Simonovits, 2003. "Modeling Pension Systems," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-4039-3845-9, March.
    3. Bernhard Boockmann & Viktor Steiner, 2006. "Cohort effects and the returns to education in West Germany," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(10), pages 1135-1152.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Köllő, János, 2015. "Kísérlet a feketefoglalkoztatás becslésére a be nem jelentett, de a kérdőíves felvételekben megfigyelt munka alapján [An attempt to estimate informal employment based on unregistered work observed ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 638-651.
    2. Simonovits, András, 2017. "Az elfelejtett nyugdíjdegresszió [The forgotten pension degression]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 650-660.
    3. Simonovits, András & Szabó, Endre & Czeglédi, Tibor & Tir, Melinda, 2016. "Nyugdíjba vonulási szabályok Magyarországon - nyertesek és vesztesek [Retirement rules in Hungary: gainers and losers]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1261-1288.
    4. Vékás, Péter, 2015. "Az egyéni munkaerő-piaci aktivitás becslése mikroszimulációs modellkeretben [Estimating individual labor market activity in Hungary in a microsimulation framework]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1291-1308.
    5. Major, Klára & Varga, Gergely, 2013. "Parametrikus nyugdíjreformok és életciklus-munkakínálat [Parametric pension reforms and life-cycle labour supply]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 1169-1207.
    6. Karoly Fazekas & Zsombor Cseres-Gergely & Agota Scharle (ed.), 2008. "The Hungarian Labour Market 2008," The Hungarian Labour Market Yearbooks, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, number 2008, December.
    7. Simonovits, András & Gál, Róbert Iván, 2012. "A magyar nyugdíjrendszer éves hozamrátái [Annual rates of return in the Hungarian pension system]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 963-987.
    8. Simonovits, András, 2015. "Hossz- és keresztmetszeti egyensúly az életpálya finanszírozásában [Longitudinal and cross-sectional equilibrium in lifetime financing]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 611-620.
    9. Augusztinovics, Mária & Máté, Levente & Gyombolai, Márton, 2008. "Járulékfizetés és nyugdíjjogosultság 1997-2006 [Pension contributions and acquired pension rights 1997-2006]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 665-689.
    10. Simonovits, András, 2018. "Miért kell a nyugdíj-valorizálást és -indexálást pontrendszerrel felváltani? [Why should valorisation and indexing pensions be replaced by a points system?]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 903-922.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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