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Die Inflationsneutrale Kapazitätsauslastung und die Phillips-Kurve in der Schweiz – Eine Analyse mit Mikrodaten

Eine hohe Auslastung der Produktionskapazitäten birgt Inflationsrisiken in sich, da übermässig ausgelastete Unternehmen dazu tendieren, die Nachfrage über höhere Preise mit ihren Produktionsmöglichkeiten in Einklang zu bringen. Umgekehrt ist bei einer Unterauslastung mit einer Dämpfung der Inflationsrate zu rechnen. Informationen über die inflationsneutrale Kapazitätsauslastung (NAICU: «non-accelerating inflation rate of capacity utilisation») sind deshalb für geldpolitische Entscheidungsträger von erheblicher Bedeutung. Die NAICU entspricht der durchschnittlichen Auslastung derjenigen Unternehmen, die keinen Preisanpassungsdruck empfinden. Allerdings ist die NAICU in makroökonomischen Daten nicht beobachtbar, und Schätzungen unterliegen zum Teil sehr restriktiven Annahmen. Im vorliegenden Beitrag wird ein neuer Ansatz zur Berechnung der NAICU vorgestellt, der frei ist von einer Reihe von Problemen bisher verwendeter Verfahren. Die Schätzung von Phillips-Kurven zeigt, dass die «Kapazitätslücke», d. h. die Abweichung der Kapazitätsauslastung von der nach dem vorliegenden Konzept berechneten NAICU, anderen Indikatoren des realwirtschaftlich bedingten Inflationsdrucks überlegen ist.

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Article provided by KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich in its journal KOF Analysen.

Volume (Year): 3 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 67-78

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Handle: RePEc:kof:anskof:v:3:y:2009:i:1:p:67-78
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  1. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1998. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy: Expanded Version," NBER Technical Working Papers 0233, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
  3. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler & J. David López-Salido, 2000. "European Inflation Dynamics," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0020, Banco de Espa�a.
  4. Robert J. Gordon, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter.
  5. Sarah M. Lein & Eva Köberl, 2009. "Capacity Utilisation, Constraints and Price Adjustments under the Microscope," KOF Working papers 09-239, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  6. Lein, Sarah M., 2010. "When do firms adjust prices? Evidence from micro panel data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(6), pages 696-715, September.
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