IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/khe/scajes/v4y2018i2p112-119.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Yuan Revaluation and China’s External Trade Performance

Author

Listed:
  • Fulgence Dominick Waryoba

Abstract

This paper analyzed the effect of Yuan revaluation on China’s external trade performance. Using break point unit root analysis, 1994 has revealed to be the beginning of a new regime for real effective exchange rate implying that Yuan peg to US Dollar really played a central role in influencing real effective exchange rate. Though in the short run real effective exchange rate influence on trade seems unimportant, in the long run the influence is positive and economically significant. Since trade involves more than one country, growth in foreign economic activities influences China’s exports growth the same way as China’s economic growth influences import growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Fulgence Dominick Waryoba, 2018. "Yuan Revaluation and China’s External Trade Performance," Academic Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 4(2), pages 112-119, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:khe:scajes:v:4:y:2018:i:2:p:112-119
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ajes.ro/wp-content/uploads/AJES_article_1_175.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.ajes.ro/wp-content/uploads/AJES_article_1_175.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yao, Daqing & Whalley, John, 2015. "The Yuan and Shanghai Pilot Free Trade Zone," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 30(4), pages 591-615.
    2. Robert Z. Lawrence, 2006. "China and the Multilateral Trading System," NBER Working Papers 12759, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Michaël Goujon & Samuel Guérineau, 2006. "The modification of Chinese exchange rate policy: rationale, extent and recent developments," Post-Print hal-00489186, HAL.
    4. Fulgence Dominick Waryoba, 2017. "Foreign Direct Investment and China’s Productivity Growth during the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis," Academic Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 3(3), pages 33-37, September.
    5. Paul Turner, 2009. "Testing for cointegration using the Johansen approach: are we using the correct critical values?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(5), pages 825-831.
    6. Andrew K. Rose, 2011. "Exchange Rate Regimes in the Modern Era : Fixed, Floating, and Flaky," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 652-672, September.
    7. Han, Xuehui & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2018. "International transmissions of monetary shocks: Between a trilemma and a dilemma," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 205-219.
    8. Stockman, Alan C, 1980. "A Theory of Exchange Rate Determination," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(4), pages 673-698, August.
    9. Jagdeep S. Bhandari, 1983. "An Alternative Theory of Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(2), pages 337-348.
    10. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    11. Brett D. Berger & Robert F. Martin, 2011. "The growth of Chinese exports: an examination of the detailed trade data," International Finance Discussion Papers 1033, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Robert Z. Lawrence, 2006. "China and the Multilateral Trading System," NBER Working Papers 12759, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Colin A. Carter & Daniel H. Pick, 1989. "The J-Curve Effect and the U.S. Agricultural Trade Balance," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 71(3), pages 712-720.
    14. Andrew Powell & Pilar Tavella, 2015. "Capital Inflow Surges in Emerging Economies: How Worried Should Latin America and the Caribbean Be?," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 1-37, February.
    15. Kai Guo & Mr. Papa M N'Diaye, 2009. "Is China's Export-Oriented Growth Sustainable?," IMF Working Papers 2009/172, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Wei, Shang-Jin & Han, Xuehui, 2016. "International Transmissions of Monetary Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 11070, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Robert C. Johnson, 2014. "Five Facts about Value-Added Exports and Implications for Macroeconomics and Trade Research," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(2), pages 119-142, Spring.
    18. Carmen M. Reinhart, 1995. "Devaluation, Relative Prices, and International Trade: Evidence from Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(2), pages 290-312, June.
    19. Durlauf, Steven N & Phillips, Peter C B, 1988. "Trends versus Random Walks in Time Series Analysis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1333-1354, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Eugenio Cerutti & Stijn Claessens & Andrew K. Rose, 2019. "How Important is the Global Financial Cycle? Evidence from Capital Flows," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(1), pages 24-60, March.
    2. Jonathan Kearns & Andreas Schrimpf & Fan Dora Xia, 2023. "Explaining Monetary Spillovers: The Matrix Reloaded," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(6), pages 1535-1568, September.
    3. Jeffrey Frankel, 2021. "Systematic Managed Floating," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Steven J Davis & Edward S Robinson & Bernard Yeung (ed.), THE ASIAN MONETARY POLICY FORUM Insights for Central Banking, chapter 5, pages 160-221, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Marsh, Patrick, 2007. "The Available Information For Invariant Tests Of A Unit Root," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(4), pages 686-710, August.
    5. Teti̇k, Metin, 2020. "Testing of leader-follower interaction between fed and emerging countries’ central banks," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    6. Douglas W. Diamond & Yunzhi Hu & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2020. "The Spillovers from Easy Liquidity and the Implications for Multilateralism," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(1), pages 4-34, March.
    7. Nikolaos Giannellis & Minoas Koukouritakis, 2011. "Behavioural equilibrium exchange rate and total misalignment: evidence from the euro exchange rate," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 38(4), pages 555-578, November.
    8. Niels Haldrup & Robinson Kruse & Timo Teräsvirta & Rasmus T. Varneskov, 2013. "Unit roots, non-linearities and structural breaks," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 4, pages 61-94, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Cheng, Fuzhi & Orden, David, 2005. "Exchange rate misalignment and its effects on agricultural producer support estimates," MTID discussion papers 81, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    10. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2008:i:61:p:1-14 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Hung, Ying-Shu & Lee, Chingnun & Chen, Pei-Fen, 2022. "China’s monetary policy and global stock markets: A new cointegration approach with smoothing structural changes," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 643-666.
    12. Ligonniere, Samuel, 2018. "Trilemma, dilemma and global players," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 20-39.
    13. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: a survey," BIS Working Papers 676, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. John D. Levendis, 2018. "Time Series Econometrics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-319-98282-3, April.
    15. Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària & José Eduardo Vera-Valdés, 2008. "Granger-Causality in the presence of structural breaks," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(61), pages 1-14.
    16. Sun, Churen & Liu, Xuemei & Xu, Jinqiang, 2023. "Does China’s market opening eased its trade partners’ domestic conflicts? – Evidence from China’s WTO accession," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    17. Patrick Marsh, "undated". "A Measure of Distance for the Unit Root Hypothesis," Discussion Papers 05/02, Department of Economics, University of York.
    18. Peter C. B. Phillips & Zhijie Xiao, 1998. "A Primer on Unit Root Testing," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 423-470, December.
    19. Cribari-Neto, Francisco, 1996. "On time series econometrics," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(Supplemen), pages 37-60.
    20. D. Ventosa-Santaulària, 2009. "Spurious Regression," Journal of Probability and Statistics, Hindawi, vol. 2009, pages 1-27, August.
    21. Kerr, William A., 2016. "Disequilibrium, Trade and the Consequenses of Adjustment," Estey Centre Journal of International Law and Trade Policy, Estey Centre for Law and Economics in International Trade, vol. 17(2), pages 1-17, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate revaluation; trade performance; economic growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:khe:scajes:v:4:y:2018:i:2:p:112-119. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Adi Sava (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ffucdro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.