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Testing for cointegration using the Johansen approach: Are we using the correct critical values?

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  • Paul Turner

    (Dept of Economics, Loughborough University)

Abstract

This paper presents Monte Carlo simulations for the Johansen cointegration test which indicate that the critical values applied in a number of econometrics software packages are inappropriate. This is due to a confusion in the specification of the deterministic terms included in the VECM between the cases considered by Osterwald-Lenum (1992) and Pesaran, Shin and Smith (2000). The result is a tendency to reject the null of no cointegration too often. However, a simple adjustment of the critical values is enough to deal with the problem.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Turner, 2007. "Testing for cointegration using the Johansen approach: Are we using the correct critical values?," Discussion Paper Series 2007_12, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised May 2007.
    • Handle: RePEc:lbo:lbowps:2007_12
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    File URL: http://www.lboro.ac.uk/departments/ec/RePEc/lbo/lbowps/Turner_Johansen_Simulations_May_2007.pdf
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    4. Fulgence Dominick Waryoba, 2018. "Yuan Revaluation and China’s External Trade Performance," Academic Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 4(2), pages 112-119, June.
    5. Solarin, Sakiru Adebola & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2013. "Trivariate causality between economic growth, urbanisation and electricity consumption in Angola: Cointegration and causality analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 876-884.
    6. Grabowski, Wojciech & Welfe, Aleksander, 2020. "The Tobit cointegrated vector autoregressive model: An application to the currency market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 88-100.
    7. Giuseppe Cavaliere & Dimitris N. Politis & Anders Rahbek & Giuseppe Cavaliere & Dimitris N. Politis & Anders Rahbek, 2015. "Recent developments in bootstrap methods for dependent data," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(3), pages 269-271, May.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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