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The impact of closeness on turnout: An empirical relation based on a study of a two-round ballot

  • Christine Fauvelle-Aymar
  • Abel François

    ()

Several methodological difficulties emerge from the empirical evaluation of the impact of closeness on turnout. The most critical resides in the use of the actual electoral results to assess the impact of closeness. Important doubt therefore remains with respect to the empirical validity of the relationship between turnout and closeness. This article intends to explore this ambiguity by an econometric analysis of the two-round French legislative elections. The first ballot gives excellent information to the voters on the expected closeness of the upcoming second ballot. The results show that closeness, whatever its measure, has an important and meaningful impact on electoral participation. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2006

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11127-005-9004-x
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Article provided by Springer in its journal Public Choice.

Volume (Year): 127 (2006)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
Pages: 461-483

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Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:127:y:2006:i:3:p:461-483
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100332

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  1. Matsusaka, John G, 1993. " Election Closeness and Voter Turnout: Evidence from California Ballot Propositions," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 76(4), pages 313-34, August.
  2. Mutsusaka, J.G. & Palda, F., 1991. "The Downsian Voter Meets the Ecological Fallacy," Papers 91-30, Southern California - School of Business Administration.
  3. Timothy J. Feddersen, 2004. "Rational Choice Theory and the Paradox of Not Voting," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 99-112, Winter.
  4. Gelman, Andrew & Katz, Jonathan N. & Bafumi, Joseph, 2002. "Standard Voting Power Indexes Don't Work: An Empirical Analysis," Working Papers 1133, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
  5. Barry Nalebuff & Ron Shachar, 1999. "Follow the Leader: Theory and Evidence on Political Participation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 525-547, June.
  6. Chapman, Randall G & Palda, Kristian S, 1983. " Electoral Turnout in Rational Voting and Consumption Perspectives," Journal of Consumer Research, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(4), pages 337-46, March.
  7. Grofman, Bernard & Collet, Christian & Griffin, Robert, 1998. " Analyzing the Turnout-Competition Link with Aggregate Cross-Sectional Data," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 95(3-4), pages 233-46, June.
  8. Kirchgassner, Gebhard & Schimmelpfenning, Jorg, 1992. " Closeness Counts If It Matters for Electoral Victory: Some Empirical Results for the United Kingdom and the Federal Republic of Germany," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 73(3), pages 283-99, April.
  9. Amrita Dhillon & Susana Peralta, 2002. "Economic Theories Of Voter Turnout," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(480), pages F332-F352, June.
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