IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/openec/v31y2020i5d10.1007_s11079-020-09582-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Present-Value Model of the Exchange Rate with a Persistently Time-Varying Risk Premium: Evidence from the Dollar-Yen Rate

Author

Listed:
  • Makoto Shimizu

    (Tokyo International University)

Abstract

In this study, I formulate a present value model of the exchange rate with a risk premium and introduce exchange rate risk exposure as a factor of the persistently time-varying risk premium. The present value model incorporates expectations for the distant future, and therefore, indicates that spot exchange rate variations reflect changes in long-run future interest rate differential and exchange rate expectations, in addition to a risk premium for long-run risk exposure. I also conduct empirical analyses using mainly the USD/JPY rate and other exchange rates against the USD. The Japanese current account balance provides a better estimation of the change in USD/JPY rate market risk exposure as USD invoiced trades are prevalent in Japan. Then, I demonstrate the possibility that a persistently time-varying risk premium offsets the effect of the interest rate differential on exchange rate variations, which can be a solution to the uncovered interest rate parity puzzle.

Suggested Citation

  • Makoto Shimizu, 2020. "The Present-Value Model of the Exchange Rate with a Persistently Time-Varying Risk Premium: Evidence from the Dollar-Yen Rate," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(5), pages 1037-1059, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:31:y:2020:i:5:d:10.1007_s11079-020-09582-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11079-020-09582-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11079-020-09582-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11079-020-09582-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2007. "The Unsustainable US Current Account Position Revisited," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 339-376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Engel, Charles, 2014. "Exchange Rates and Interest Parity," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 453-522, Elsevier.
    3. Emine Boz & Gita Gopinath & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller, 2017. "Global Trade and the Dollar," NBER Working Papers 23988, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey, 2007. "International Financial Adjustment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(4), pages 665-703, August.
    5. Maurice Obstfeld, 2006. "Implications for the Yen of Japanese Current Account Adjustment," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 24(S1), pages 27-38, December.
    6. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Presidential Address: Discount Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1047-1108, August.
    7. John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
    8. Gita Gopinath, 2015. "The International Price System," NBER Working Papers 21646, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. M. Ariff & A. Zarei, 2016. "Exchange Rate Behavior of Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 341-357, April.
    10. Maria Eleftheriou & Nikolas A. Müller-Plantenberg, 2018. "The Purchasing Power Parity Fallacy: Time to Reconsider the PPP Hypothesis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 481-515, July.
    11. Camila Casas & Mr. Federico J Diez & Ms. Gita Gopinath & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2017. "Dominant Currency Paradigm: A New Model for Small Open Economies," IMF Working Papers 2017/264, International Monetary Fund.
    12. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989. "Consumption, Income, and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 185-246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Christian Grisse & Thomas Nitschka, 2016. "Exchange Rate Returns and External Adjustment: Evidence from Switzerland," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 317-339, April.
    14. repec:fth:harver:1435 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2007. "The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970-2004," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 223-250, November.
    16. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth S, 2005. "The Unsustainable US Current Account Position Revisited," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt4f63x50j, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    17. Charles Engel, 2016. "Exchange Rates, Interest Rates, and the Risk Premium," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(2), pages 436-474, February.
    18. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth S, 2005. "The Unsustainable US Current Account Position Revisited," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt4f63x50j, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    19. Obstfeld, Maurice, 2006. "Implications for the Yen of Japanese Current Account Adjustment," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt5nw3n8gk, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    20. Lane, Philip & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, "undated". "External Wealth of Nations," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics extwealth, Boston College Department of Economics.
    21. Michael Bleaney & Mo Tian, 2014. "Net foreign assets and real exchange rates revisited," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 66(4), pages 1145-1158.
    22. Shimizu, Makoto, 2017. "Effect of net foreign assets on persistency of time-varying risk premium: Evidence from the Dollar-Yen exchange rate," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 255-265.
    23. Menzie D. Chinn & Guy Meredith, 2005. "Testing Uncovered Interest Parity at Short and Long Horizons during the Post-Bretton Woods Era," NBER Working Papers 11077, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Chinn, Menzie D., 2006. "The (partial) rehabilitation of interest rate parity in the floating rate era: Longer horizons, alternative expectations, and emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 7-21, February.
    25. Hanno Lustig & Andreas Stathopoulos & Adrien Verdelhan, 2019. "The Term Structure of Currency Carry Trade Risk Premia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(12), pages 4142-4177, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Makoto Shimizu & Joon‐Heon Song, 2022. "Effects of exchange rates and invoiced currencies on trade: Evidence from South Korea," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(6), pages 1997-2031, June.
    2. Dinçer Afat & Michael Frömmel, 2021. "A Panel Data Analysis of Uncovered Interest Parity and Time-Varying Risk Premium," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(3), pages 507-526, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95, November.
    2. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: a survey," BIS Working Papers 676, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Shimizu, Makoto, 2017. "Effect of net foreign assets on persistency of time-varying risk premium: Evidence from the Dollar-Yen exchange rate," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 255-265.
    4. Dahlquist, Magnus & Pénasse, Julien, 2022. "The missing risk premium in exchange rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 697-715.
    5. Bergant, Katharina, 2021. "The role of stock-flow adjustment during the global financial crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    6. Devereux, Michael B. & Genberg, Hans, 2007. "Currency appreciation and current account adjustment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 570-586, June.
    7. David Amdur & Eylem Ersal Kiziler, 2014. "Trend shocks and the countercyclical U.S. current account," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 47(2), pages 494-516, May.
    8. Pavlova, Anna & Rigobon, Roberto, 2010. "An asset-pricing view of external adjustment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 144-156, January.
    9. John Lipsky, 2009. "Asia, the financial crisis, and global economic governance - closing remarks," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    10. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Global imbalances and the financial crisis: products of common causes," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 131-172.
    11. Lars Calmfors & Giancarlo Corsetti & Seppo Honkapohja & John Kay & Gilles Saint-Paul & Hans-Werner Sinn & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Xavier Vives, 2006. "Chapter 2: Global Imbalances," EEAG Report on the European Economy, CESifo, vol. 0, pages 50-67, March.
    12. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso, 2009. "The evolution of the Sino-American Co-dependency: modelling a regime switch in a growth setting," Department of Economics Working Papers 0905, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
    13. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2007. "Financial Integration, Financial Deepness and Global Imbalance," 2007 Meeting Papers 746, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Broner, Fernando & Didier, Tatiana & Schmukler, Sergio L. & von Peter, Goetz, 2023. "Bilateral international investments: The big sur?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    15. Bernoth, Kerstin & Herwartz, Helmut, 2021. "Exchange rates, foreign currency exposure and sovereign risk," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 117, pages 1-1.
    16. D.D. Evans, Martin, 2017. "External balances, trade and financial conditions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 165-184.
    17. Pasquale Della Corte & Lucio Sarno & Giulia Sestieri, 2012. "The Predictive Information Content of External Imbalances for Exchange Rate Returns: How Much Is It Worth?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(1), pages 100-115, February.
    18. Bora Durdu & Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2009. "On the solvency of nations: are global imbalances consistent with intertemporal budget constraints?," International Finance Discussion Papers 975, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Marques, Luis B, 2007. "Welfare Implications of Exchange Rate Changes," MPRA Paper 5721, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Ziesemer, Thomas, 2007. "Estimations of US debt dynamics: Growth cum debt and the savings glut in Kouri’s model," MERIT Working Papers 2007-003, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:31:y:2020:i:5:d:10.1007_s11079-020-09582-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.