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Net foreign assets and real exchange rates revisited

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  • Michael Bleaney
  • Mo Tian

Abstract

Theory suggests a significant positive relationship in long-run equilibrium between the net foreign assets (NFA) of a country and its real exchange rate. Empirical tests have ignored two issues: the large variation in cross-country trade/GDP ratios, which is likely to induce substantial cross-country differences in coefficients when net foreign assets are scaled by GDP, and the reverse causality associated with valuation effects. A real exchange rate appreciation reduces the absolute value of NFA denominated in foreign currency relative to domestic GDP, because of the sizeable component of non-tradable goods in domestic GDP. This endogeneity biases the test results. New tests are implemented that address these issues. The valuation effect bias is found to be significant. The new tests nevertheless still support the existence of a long-run positive relationship between NFA and real exchange rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Bleaney & Mo Tian, 2014. "Net foreign assets and real exchange rates revisited," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 66(4), pages 1145-1158.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:66:y:2014:i:4:p:1145-1158.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/oep/gpu014
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Andrey Feliksovich Bedin & Alexander Vladimirovich Kulikov & Andrey Vladimirovich Polbin, 2021. "A Markov Switching VECM Model for Russian Real GDP, Real Exchange Rate and Oil Prices," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(2), pages 402-412.
    2. A. Polbin., 2017. "Modeling the real ruble exchange rate under monetary policy regime change," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 4.
    3. Polbin, Andrey & Shumilov, Andrei & Bedin, Andrei & Kulikov, Alexander, 2019. "Modeling real exchange rate of the Russian ruble using Markov regime switching approach," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 55, pages 32-50.
    4. Michael Bleaney & Mo Tian, 2019. "Net foreign assets and current account balances," Discussion Papers 2019/06, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    5. Kharrat, Sabrine & Hammami, Yacine & Fatnassi, Ibrahim, 2020. "On the cross-sectional relation between exchange rates and future fundamentals," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 484-501.
    6. Makoto Shimizu, 2020. "The Present-Value Model of the Exchange Rate with a Persistently Time-Varying Risk Premium: Evidence from the Dollar-Yen Rate," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(5), pages 1037-1059, November.
    7. Saang Joon Baak, 2015. "Is the Yen Undervalued?," Discussion papers 1503, ERINA - Economic Research Institute for Northeast Asia.
    8. Polbin, Andrey, 2017. "Моделирование Реального Курса Рубля В Условиях Изменения Режима Денежно-Кредитной Политики [Modeling the real ruble exchange rate under monetary policy regime change]," MPRA Paper 78139, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Baak, SaangJoon, 2017. "Is the yen misaligned more during the Abenomics period?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 26-34.
    10. Michael Bleaney & Mo Tian, 2019. "Flexible exchange rates and current account adjustment," Discussion Papers 2019/02, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    11. Michael Bleaney & Mo Tian, 2014. "Global Imbalances and the External Solvency of Nations," Discussion Papers 14/02, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    12. Ong, Kian, 2020. "Net foreign assets dynamics: the persistence and sources of shocks to net foreign assets in 12 EU countries," MPRA Paper 100929, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Saang Joon Baak, 2015. "Is the Yen Undervalued?," Discussion papers 1503e, ERINA - Economic Research Institute for Northeast Asia.
    14. A. Polbin, 2017. "Modeling the real ruble exchange rate under monetary policyregime change," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 4.
    15. Polbin, Andrey & Shumilov, Andrei & Bedin, Andrey & Kulikov, Alexander, 2019. "Модель Реального Обменного Курса Рубля С Марковскими Переключениями Режимов [Modeling real exchange rate of the Russian ruble using Markov regime-switching approach]," MPRA Paper 93310, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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