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Forecasting and Evaluating Network Growth

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Abstract

This research assesses the implications of existing trends on future network investment, comparing alternative scenarios concerning budgets and investment rules across a variety of performance measures. The main scenarios compare 'stated decision rules', processes encoded in flowcharts and weights developed from official documents or by discussion with agency staff, with 'revealed decision rules', weights estimated statistically based on observed historical behavior. This research specifies the processes necessary to run the network forecasting models with various decision rules. Results for different scenarios are presented including adding additional constraints for the transportation network expansion and calibration process details. We find that alternative decision rules make only small differences in overall system performance, though they direct investments to very different locations. However, changes in total budget can make a significant difference to system-wide performance.
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  • David Levinson & Feng Xie & Norah Oca, 2012. "Forecasting and Evaluating Network Growth," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 239-262, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:netspa:v:12:y:2012:i:2:p:239-262
    DOI: 10.1007/s11067-009-9113-z
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11067-009-9113-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David Levinson & Bhanu Yerra, 2006. "Self-Organization of Surface Transportation Networks," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 40(2), pages 179-188, May.
    2. Bhanu Yerra & David Levinson, 2005. "The emergence of hierarchy in transportation networks," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 39(3), pages 541-553, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Feng Xie & David Levinson, 2008. "Evaluating the Effects of I-35W Bridge Collapse on Road-Users in the Twin Cities Metropolitan Region," Working Papers 000043, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
    2. Feng Xie & David Levinson, 2009. "Jurisdictional Control and Network Growth," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 459-483, September.
    3. Castillo-Manzano, José I. & Pedregal, Diego J. & Pozo-Barajas, Rafael, 2016. "An econometric evaluation of the management of large-scale transport infrastructure in Spain during the great recession: Lessons for infrastructure bubbles," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 302-313.
    4. David Levinson & David Giacomin & Antony Badsey-Ellis, 2014. "Accessibility and the choice of network investments in the London Underground," Working Papers 000124, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
    5. C. Jacobs-Crisioni & C. C. Koopmans, 2016. "Transport link scanner: simulating geographic transport network expansion through individual investments," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 265-301, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Network growth; Decision-making; Forecasting; Evaluation; The Twin Cities;

    JEL classification:

    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise
    • R42 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Government and Private Investment Analysis; Road Maintenance; Transportation Planning
    • R48 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Government Pricing and Policy

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