Forecasting and Evaluating Network Growth
This research assesses the implications of existing trends on future network investment, comparing alternative scenarios concerning budgets and investment rules across a variety of performance measures. The main scenarios compare 'stated decision rules';, processes encoded in flowcharts and weights developed from official documents or by discussion with agency staff, with 'revealed decision rules', weights estimated statistically based on observed historical behavior. This research specifies the processes necessary to run the network forecasting models with various decision rules. Results for different scenarios are presented including adding additional constraints for the transportation network expansion and calibration process details. We find that alternative decision rules make only small differences in overall system performance, though they direct investments to very different locations. However, changes in total budget can make a significant difference to system-wide performance.
|Date of creation:||2006|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in Networks and Spatial Economics 12(2) 239â€“262|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Dept. of Civil Engineering, 500 Pillsbury Drive SE, Minneapolis, MN 55455|
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Web page: http://nexus.umn.edu
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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- David Levinson & Bhanu Yerra, 2006. "Self Organization of Surface Transportation Networks," Working Papers 200603, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
- Bhanu Yerra & David Levinson, 2005.
"The emergence of hierarchy in transportation networks,"
The Annals of Regional Science,
Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 541-553, 09.
- Bhanu Yerra & David Levinson, 2005. "The Emergence of Hierarchy in Transportation Networks," Working Papers 200507, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
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