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Adapting to Rising Sea Levels: How Short-Term Responses Complement Long-Term Investment

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  • G. Guthrie

    (Victoria University of Wellington)

Abstract

This paper presents a parsimonious model of a coastal locality’s adaptation to rising sea levels and uses the model to examine cost-minimizing policies involving two complementary approaches. One involves irreversible investment in sea walls and similar infrastructure. The other involves activities, such as beach scraping, that only provide temporary protection. Costs are minimized by delaying investment until the present value of the benefits from avoided inundation costs exceeds upfront investment costs by a margin that is economically significant. The premium, which can exceed 50% of investment costs, is higher when the sea level is rising more quickly. The ability to temporarily boost defenses is used aggressively: spending on temporary improvements immediately before investment is several times larger than its value immediately afterwards. Temporary improvements are made even when the marginal cost of increasing the effectiveness of defenses this way is significantly greater than the equivalent annual cost of permanently increasing effectiveness by investment.

Suggested Citation

  • G. Guthrie, 2021. "Adapting to Rising Sea Levels: How Short-Term Responses Complement Long-Term Investment," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 78(4), pages 635-668, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:enreec:v:78:y:2021:i:4:d:10.1007_s10640-021-00547-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s10640-021-00547-z
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    1. Graeme Guthrie, 2021. "Discounting, Disagreement, and the Option to Delay," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 80(1), pages 95-133, September.
    2. Eisenack, Klaus & Paschen, Marius, 2022. "Adapting long-lived investments under climate change uncertainty," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    3. Hidekazu Yoshioka & Kunihiko Hamagami & Haruka Tomobe, 2023. "A Non-local Fokker-Planck Equation with Application to Probabilistic Evaluation of Sediment Replenishment Projects," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 1-37, March.

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    JEL classification:

    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • R42 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Government and Private Investment Analysis; Road Maintenance; Transportation Planning

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