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An Incumbent Country View on Eastern Enlargement of the EU Part I: A General Treatment

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  • Wilhelm Kohler
  • Christian Keuschnigg

Abstract

An eastern Enlargement of the EU, from an incumbent country point of view, involves a fiscal burden from extending Union agricultural and cohesion plicies to new members, coupled with potential gains as well as adjustment problems deriving from an extended customs union and a larger single market. Enlargement is controversial, because the net effect is unclear, a priori, and will certainly vary across individual countries. Our two- part contribution tries to do shed light on this controversy. In this first part, we present a general treatment of the likely effects on different incumbent countries, while a subsequent companion paper will take a closer look at the specific case of Austria. The general view of part I, in turn, first focuses on various empirical measures highlighting crucial differences between incumbents, pertaining to the fiscal burden on the one hand, and integration gains on the other. We then argue that a proper evaluation must rely on an explicit welfare criterion, and we use a general model of economic integration in order to identify the principal channels through which aggregate welfare of an incumbent country is affected by an enlargement of the EU. We address traditional effects of trade creation and trade diversion, as well as growth effects arising from an abolition of trade barriers. In addition, we ask how enlargement affects foreign direct investment and labor migration, and what this implies in welfare terms for an invumbent western European country. Taken together, these effects generate a certain presumption of integration gains, which need to be set against the fiscal burden. However, a final judgement requires a case- by-base approach, based on empirical implementations of enriched and parameterized models for specific countries. The companion paper, therefore, uses a suitably specified, calibrated dynamic equilibrium model, in order to take a closer look at the Austrian case.
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  • Wilhelm Kohler & Christian Keuschnigg, 2000. "An Incumbent Country View on Eastern Enlargement of the EU Part I: A General Treatment," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 27(4), pages 325-351, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:empiri:v:27:y:2000:i:4:p:325-351
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1010929126735
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    Cited by:

    1. May Justin B, 2010. "Trade and Migration in an Enlarged European Union: A Spatial Analysis," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 9(4), pages 1-40, January.
    2. Kohler, Wilhelm, 2004. "Eastern Enlargement of the EU: A Comprehensive Welfare Assessment," Discussion Paper Series 26377, Hamburg Institute of International Economics.
    3. Wilhelm Kohler, 2003. "Eastern Enlargement of the EU: A Comprehensive Welfare Assessment," Economics working papers 2003-16, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    4. Torstein Bye & Erling Holmϕy, 2010. "Removing Policy-based Comparative Advantage for Energy Intensive Production: Necessary Adjustments of the Real Exchange Rate and Industry Structure," The Energy Journal, , vol. 31(1), pages 177-198, January.
    5. Ben J Heijdra & Christian Keuschnigg & Wilhelm Kohler, 2014. "Eastern Enlargement of the EU: Jobs, Investment and Welfare in Present Member Countries," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: European Economic Integration, WTO Membership, Immigration and Offshoring, chapter 2, pages 37-83, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Anders Due Madsen & Morten Lobedanz Sørensen, 2002. "Economic Consequences for Denmark of EU Enlargement," DREAM Working Paper Series 200202, Danish Rational Economic Agents Model, DREAM.
    7. Torstein Bye & Erling Erling Holmoy, 2010. "Removing Policy-based Comparative Advantage for Energy Intensive Production: Necessary Adjustments of the Real Exchange Rate and Industry Structure," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 177-198.
    8. Anders Due Madsen & Morten Lobedanz Sørensen, 2002. "Effects of Trade and Market Integration in a Small Open Economy - A Dynamic CGE Approach," DREAM Working Paper Series 200203, Danish Rational Economic Agents Model, DREAM.
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    10. Kohler, Wilhelm, 2004. "Eastern enlargement of the EU: a comprehensive welfare assessment," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 865-888, October.
    11. Kohler, Wilhelm K., 2004. "Eastern Enlargement of the EU: A Comprehensive Welfare Assessment," HWWA Discussion Papers 260, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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