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Eastern Enlargement of the EU: A Comprehensive Welfare Assessment

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Abstract

This paper takes a welfare-view on eastern enlargement of the EU, focusing on incumbent countries. Enlargement is decomposed into three elements: Single-market integration on commodity markets, budgetary costs from EU-expenditure policies, and single-market-induced migration from new to present member countries. I first use an analytical model to derive a welfare equation that identifies the principle channels for incumbent country welfare gains and losses from enlargement, including product differentiation, capital accumulation, and unemployment due to search-costs. I then propose a method that allows to extend welfare results obtained from a detailed calibrated version of this model for Germany to other incumbent countries. The approach relies on model elasticities extracted from the German model which are then applied to other countries’ idiosyncratic "enlargement-shocks". Constructing detailed indices for such country-specific "enlargement shocks", I arrive at a characteristic inter-country pattern of enlargement-induced welfare effects for all EU15 countries. Aggregating these across countries reveals enlargement to be beneficial for the union as a whole, although several countries stand to suffer welfare losses.

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  • Wilhelm Kohler, 2003. "Eastern Enlargement of the EU: A Comprehensive Welfare Assessment," Economics working papers 2003-16, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
  • Handle: RePEc:jku:econwp:2003_16
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christian Keuschnigg & Mirela Keuschnigg & Wilhelm Kohler, 2001. "The German Perspective on Eastern EU Enlargement," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(4), pages 513-542, April.
    2. Keuschnigg, Christian & Kohler, Wilhelm, 2002. "Eastern Enlargement of the EU: How Much Is It Worth for Austria?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(2), pages 324-342, May.
    3. Wilhelm Kohler & Christian Keuschnigg, 2000. "An Incumbent Country View on Eastern Enlargement of the EU Part I: A General Treatment," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 27(4), pages 325-351, December.
    4. Borjas, George J., 1999. "The economic analysis of immigration," Handbook of Labor Economics,in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 28, pages 1697-1760 Elsevier.
    5. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1977. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 297-308, June.
    6. Baldwin, Richard E. & Venables, Anthony J., 1995. "Regional economic integration," Handbook of International Economics,in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 31, pages 1597-1644 Elsevier.
    7. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-247, April.
    8. Wilhelm Kohler & Chrisran Keuschnigg, 2001. "An Incumbent Country View on Eastern Enlargement of the EU. Part II: The Austrian Case," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 28(2), pages 159-185, June.
    9. Christian Keuschnigg, 1998. "Investment Externalities and a Corrective Subsidy," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 5(4), pages 449-469, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tito Boeri & Herbert Brücker, 2005. "Migration, Co-ordination Failures and EU Enlargement: Paper Presented at the 41st Economic Policy Panel in Luxembourg, 15/16 April 2005," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 481, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Boeri, Tito & Brücker, Herbert, 2005. "Migration, Co-ordination Failures and EU Enlargement," IZA Discussion Papers 1600, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).

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