IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/diceop/98.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Sekt oder Selters? Ökonomische Folgen der Reformzurückhaltung bei der Beendigung des Solidaritätszuschlags

Author

Listed:
  • Strohner, Ludwig
  • Berger, Johannes
  • Thomas, Tobias

Abstract

Während der Sachverständigenrat die vollständige Abschaffung des Solidaritätszuschlags nach dem Auslaufen des Solidarpakts II empfiehlt, sieht der Koalitionsvertrag der Bundesregierung lediglich vor, die Einkommensteuer teilweise vom Zuschlag zu befreien. Die Simulationen beider Reformszenarien mit dem allgemeinen dynamischen Gleichgewichtsmodell PuMA zeigen, dass durch die Reformzurückhaltung erhebliche Wohlstandgewinne nicht realisiert würden. Im Vergleich fällt das BIP bereits kurzfristig um 0,2 Prozent (langfristig 0,3 Prozent) geringer aus. Damit verbunden ist eine um 35.000 Personen (langfristig 40.000) geringere Beschäftigung. Auch die Nettoeinkommen privater Haushalte würden weniger kräftig steigen. Der Selbstfinanzierungsgrad der Reformen würde kurzfristig in beiden Szenarien 40 Prozent (langfristig 50 Prozent) ausmachen. Effektiv würden demnach die im Koalitionsvertrag veranschlagten 10 Mrd. Euro zur Finanzierung einer vollständigen Abschaffung des Solidaritätszuschlags ausreichen. Das und die gegenwärtigen Überschüsse zeigen, dass eine vollständige Abschaffung des Solidaritätszuschlags möglich wäre, ohne die Solidität der öffentlichen Finanzen zu gefährden.

Suggested Citation

  • Strohner, Ludwig & Berger, Johannes & Thomas, Tobias, 2018. "Sekt oder Selters? Ökonomische Folgen der Reformzurückhaltung bei der Beendigung des Solidaritätszuschlags," DICE Ordnungspolitische Perspektiven 98, University of Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:diceop:98
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/181675/1/1029679649.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hassett, Kevin A. & Hubbard, R. Glenn, 2002. "Tax policy and business investment," Handbook of Public Economics,in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 20, pages 1293-1343 Elsevier.
    2. repec:spr:wirtsc:v:97:y:2017:i:10:d:10.1007_s10273-017-2204-4 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Keuschnigg, Christian & Kohler, Wilhelm, 2002. "Eastern Enlargement of the EU: How Much Is It Worth for Austria?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(2), pages 324-342, May.
    4. Ulf Papenfuß & Tobias Thomas, 2007. "Eine Lanze für den Sachverständigenrat? Plädoyer für eine differenziertere Analyse wirtschaftswissenschaftlicher Beratungsinstitutionen," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(4), pages 335-358, November.
    5. Thomas Tobias & Heß Moritz & Wagner Gert G., 2017. "Reluctant to Reform? A Note on Risk-Loving Politicians and Bureaucrats," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 68(3), pages 167-179, December.
    6. Christoph Schmidt & Benjamin Weigert & Ullrich Heilemann & Gebhard Kirchgässner & Tobias Thomas & Kees Paridon, 2015. "Sachverständigenrat — Wie politiknah sollte die Beratung sein?," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;German National Library of Economics, vol. 95(3), pages 159-177, March.
    7. Dominik Grafenhofer & Christian Jaag & Christian Keuschnigg & Mirela Keuschnigg, 2005. "Probabilistic Aging," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2005 2005-08, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
    8. Philippe Weil, 1990. "Nonexpected Utility in Macroeconomics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 105(1), pages 29-42.
    9. Daron Acemoglu & James A. Robinson, 2013. "Economics versus Politics: Pitfalls of Policy Advice," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 27(2), pages 173-192, Spring.
    10. Herwig Immervoll & Henrik Jacobsen Kleven & Claus Thustrup Kreiner & Emmanuel Saez, 2007. "Welfare reform in European countries: a microsimulation analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(516), pages 1-44, January.
    11. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1977. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 297-308, June.
    12. Bruno S. Frey, 2000. "Was Bewirkt die Volkswirtschaftslehre?," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 1(1), pages 5-33, February.
    13. repec:eee:labchp:v:3:y:1999:i:pb:p:2567-2627 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. György Barabas & Roland Döhrn & Heinz Gebhardt & Torsten Schmidt, 2009. "Was bringt das Konjunkturpaket II?," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;German National Library of Economics, vol. 89(2), pages 128-132, February.
    15. Benjamin Carton & Emilio Fernández Corugedo & Benjamin L Hunt, 2017. "No Business Taxation Without Model Representation; Adding Corporate Income and Cash Flow Taxes to GIMF," IMF Working Papers 17/259, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Per Krusell & Lee E. Ohanian & JosÈ-Victor RÌos-Rull & Giovanni L. Violante, 2000. "Capital-Skill Complementarity and Inequality: A Macroeconomic Analysis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1029-1054, September.
    17. Haucap, Justus & Thomas, Tobias & Wagner, Gert G., 2015. "Zu wenig Einfluss des ökonomischen Sachverstands? Empirische Befunde zum Einfluss von Ökonomen und anderen Wissenschaftlern auf die Wirtschaftspolitik," DICE Ordnungspolitische Perspektiven 70, University of Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
    18. Meghir, Costas & Phillips, David, 2008. "Labour Supply and Taxes," IZA Discussion Papers 3405, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    19. Justus Haucap & Tobias Thomas, 2014. "Wissenschaftliche Politikberatung: Erreicht der Rat von Ökonomen Politik und Öffentlichkeit?," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;German National Library of Economics, vol. 94(3), pages 180-186, March.
    20. Giampaolo Arachi & Valeria Bucci & Alessandra Casarico, 2015. "Tax structure and macroeconomic performance," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 22(4), pages 635-662, August.
    21. Mortensen, Dale T. & Pissarides, Christopher A., 1999. "New developments in models of search in the labor market," Handbook of Labor Economics,in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 39, pages 2567-2627 Elsevier.
    22. Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Government debt and social security in a life-cycle economy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 61-110, June.
    23. Boone, Jan & Bovenberg, Lans, 2002. "Optimal labour taxation and search," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 53-97, July.
    24. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-247, April.
    25. Martin Feldstein, 2006. "The Effect of Taxes on Efficiency and Growth," NBER Working Papers 12201, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Heckman, James J, 1993. "What Has Been Learned about Labor Supply in the Past Twenty Years?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(2), pages 116-121, May.
    27. Zew, 2016. "EFFECTIVE TAX LEVELS USING THE DEVEREUX/GRIFFITH METHODOLOGY, Update 2016," Taxation Studies 0066, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
    28. Jens Matthias Arnold & Bert Brys & Christopher Heady & Åsa Johansson & Cyrille Schwellnus & Laura Vartia, 2011. "Tax Policy for Economic Recovery and Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(550), pages 59-80, February.
    29. Fernandez, Raquel & Rodrik, Dani, 1991. "Resistance to Reform: Status Quo Bias in the Presence of Individual-Specific Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1146-1155, December.
    30. Justus Haucap & Tobias Thomas & Gert Wagner, 2015. "Welchen Einfluss haben Wissenschaftler in Medien und auf die Wirtschaftspolitik?," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;German National Library of Economics, vol. 95(1), pages 68-75, January.
    31. Johannes Berger & Thomas Davoine & Philip Schuster & Ludwig Strohner, 2016. "Cross-country differences in the contribution of future migration to old-age financing," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 23(6), pages 1160-1184, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Solidaritätszuschlag; Reformzurückhaltung; CGE Modelle;

    JEL classification:

    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:diceop:98. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/diduede.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.