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Uncertainty and the arbitrage pricing theory

  • Barbara McKiernan
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    This paper tests the economic importance of income uncertainty in the context of a measured factor arbitrage pricing theory model. This provides a test of the importance of uncertainty using a different methodology and data set than are traditionally used. If income uncertainty affects the investment climate, a statistically significant risk premium will be associated with assets that are affected by uncertainty. The empirical work in this essay finds that a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity measure of income uncertainty is a priced factor in a model of the arbitrage pricing theory. The risk premium between a baa-rated 10-year corporate bond and a 10-year government bond, as well as the term structure, also are priced factors. Copyright International Atlantic Economic Society 1997

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/BF02298412
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    Article provided by Springer & International Atlantic Economic Society in its journal Atlantic Economic Journal.

    Volume (Year): 25 (1997)
    Issue (Month): 3 (September)
    Pages: 307-311

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    Handle: RePEc:kap:atlecj:v:25:y:1997:i:3:p:307-311
    DOI: 10.1007/BF02298412
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    1. Stephen P. Zeldes, 1989. "Optimal Consumption with Stochastic Income: Deviations from Certainty Equivalence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 104(2), pages 275-298.
    2. Christopher D. Carroll, 1991. "Buffer stock saving and the permanent income hypothesis," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 114, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Pindyck, Robert S., 1990. "Irreversibility, uncertainty, and investment," Working papers 3137-90., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    4. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-51, December.
    5. Gallant, A. Ronald, 1975. "Seemingly unrelated nonlinear regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 35-50, February.
    6. Hubbard, R Glenn & Skinner, Jonathan & Zeldes, Stephen P, 1994. "Expanding the Life-Cycle Model: Precautionary Saving and Public Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(2), pages 174-79, May.
    7. Ernst R. Berndt & Bronwyn H. Hall & Robert E. Hall & Jerry A. Hausman, 1974. "Estimation and Inference in Nonlinear Structural Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 4, pages 653-665 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
    9. Burmeister, Edwin & McElroy, Marjorie B, 1988. " Joint Estimation of Factor Sensitivities and Risk Premia for the Arbitrage Pricing Theory," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 721-33, July.
    10. McElroy, Marjorie B. & Burmeister, Edwin & Wall, Kent D., 1985. "Two estimators for the apt model when factors are measured," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 271-275.
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