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Is there a business cycle in Singapore? Is there a Singaporean business cycle?

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  • Francisco Nadal de Simone
  • Jose Tongzon

Abstract

This paper explores the existence and examines the characteristics, if any, of business cycles in Singapore. Specifically, the authors ask: Is there a business cycle in Singapore? Is there a Singaporean business cycle? Unlike earlier studies, this paper investigates whether or not there exists a business cycle in Singapore and employs cross-spectral analysis and factor analysis which have advantages over the time-domain techniques. The study shows that there is a business cycle in Singapore and its frequency does not coincide with the periodicity of the two recessions experienced by the country. However, the business cycle is not in any meaningful way Singaporean, as evidenced by the existence of three international factors explaining about 99 percent of the common variance of the series. The idiosyncratic factor is well below 1 percent in all Association of Southeast Asian Nations countries with the exception of the Philippines. The findings have a number of significant implications both from the theoretical and policymaking viewpoint. Copyright International Atlantic Economic Society 1997

Suggested Citation

  • Francisco Nadal de Simone & Jose Tongzon, 1997. "Is there a business cycle in Singapore? Is there a Singaporean business cycle?," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 25(1), pages 60-79, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:atlecj:v:25:y:1997:i:1:p:60-79
    DOI: 10.1007/BF02298477
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Nadal De Simone, Francisco & Clarke, Sean, 2007. "Asymmetry in business fluctuations: International evidence on Friedman's plucking model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 64-85, February.
    2. Francisco De A. Nadal-De Simone, 2001. "Inflation Targeters In Practice: A Lucky Lot?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 19(3), pages 239-253, July.
    3. Jose L. Tongzon, 2002. "The Economies of Southeast Asia, Second Edition," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2029.

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