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Transmission of Stock Returns and Volatility between the U.S. and Japan: Evidence from the Stock Index Futures Markets

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Listed author(s):
  • Ming-Shiun Pan
  • L. Hsueh
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    Abstract

    In this paper, we examine the nature of transmission of stock returns and volatility between the U.S. and Japanese stock markets using futures prices on the S&P 500 and Nikkei 225 stock indexes. We use stock index futures prices to mitigate the stale quote problem found in the spot index prices and to obtain more robust results. By employing a two-step GARCH approach, we find that there are unidirectional contemporaneous return and volatility spillovers from the U.S. to Japan. Furthermore, the U.S.'s influence on Japan in returns is approximately four times as large as the other way around. Finally, our results show no significant lagged spillover effects in both returns and volatility from the Osaka market to the Chicago market, while a significant lagged volatility spillover is observed from the U.S. to Japan. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1998

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1023/A:1010000606092
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    Article provided by Springer & Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering in its journal Asia-Pacific Financial Markets.

    Volume (Year): 5 (1998)
    Issue (Month): 3 (November)
    Pages: 211-225

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    Handle: RePEc:kap:apfinm:v:5:y:1998:i:3:p:211-225
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1010000606092
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.springer.com

    Web page: http://www.jafee.gr.jp/

    Order Information: Web: http://www.springer.com/finance/journal/10690/PS2

    Keywords: spillover effect; nonsynchronous trading; stock index futures;

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    1. Scholes, Myron & Williams, Joseph, 1977. "Estimating betas from nonsynchronous data," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 309-327, December.
    2. King, Mervyn A & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1990. "Transmission of Volatility between Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 5-33.
    3. Errunza, Vihang R. & Losq, Etienne, 1985. "The behavior of stock prices on LDC markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 561-575, December.
    4. Bae, Kee-Hong & Andrew Karolyi, G., 1995. "Good news, band news and international spilovers of stock return volatility between Japan and the U.S," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 144-144, May.
    5. Susmel, Raul & Engle, Robert F., 1994. "Hourly volatility spillovers between international equity markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 3-25, February.
    6. Boudoukh, Jacob & Richardson, Matthew P & Whitelaw, Robert F, 1994. "A Tale of Three Schools: Insights on Autocorrelations of Short-Horizon Stock Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(3), pages 539-573.
    7. Chan, Kalok, 1992. "A Further Analysis of the Lead-Lag Relationship between the Cash Market and Stock Index Futures Market," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 123-152.
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    10. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    11. Eun, Cheol S. & Shim, Sangdal, 1989. "International Transmission of Stock Market Movements," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(02), pages 241-256, June.
    12. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. " On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
    13. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    14. Ross, Stephen A, 1989. " Information and Volatility: The No-Arbitrage Martingale Approach to Timing and Resolution Irrelevancy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(1), pages 1-17, March.
    15. Aggarwal, Raj & Park, Young S., 1994. "The relationship between daily U.S. and Japanese equity prices: Evidence from spot versus futures markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 757-773, September.
    16. Lin, Wen-Ling & Engle, Robert F & Ito, Takatoshi, 1994. "Do Bulls and Bears Move across Borders? International Transmission of Stock Returns and Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(3), pages 507-538.
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    Cited by:

    1. Milunovich, George & Thorp, Susan, 2006. "Valuing volatility spillovers," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 1-22, September.
    2. Chng, Michael T., 2004. "The trading dynamics of close-substitute futures markets: evidence of margin policy spillover effects," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 14(4-5), pages 463-483.
    3. repec:spr:empeco:v:52:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s00181-016-1113-5 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Hou, Yang & Li, Steven, 2016. "Information transmission between U.S. and China index futures markets: An asymmetric DCC GARCH approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 884-897.
    5. Maderitsch, R., 2015. "Information transmission between stock markets in Hong Kong, Europe and the US: New evidence on time- and state-dependence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 35(PA), pages 13-36.
    6. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Daniel Goyeau & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2017. "Co-movements and contagion between international stock index futures markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 1529-1568, June.
    7. Nikolaos Sariannidis & Evangelos Drimbetas, 2008. "Impact of international volatility and the introduction of Individual Stock Futures on the volatility of a small market," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 119-119.
    8. Ozer-Imer, Itir & Ozkan, Ibrahim, 2014. "An empirical analysis of currency volatilities during the recent global financial crisis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 394-406.
    9. Malik, Farooq & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2007. "Shock and volatility transmission in the oil, US and Gulf equity markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 357-368.
    10. Ewing, Bradley T. & Malik, Farooq & Ozfidan, Ozkan, 2002. "Volatility transmission in the oil and natural gas markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 525-538, November.

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