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House Prices and a Flood Event: An Empirical Investigation of Market Efficiency

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Abstract

In this study, house-price reactions to a first-time disastrous flood are investigated. Conventional wisdom predicted prices would decline and later regain lost value as the market forgot the flood. In fact, sample home prices do not fall immediately after the flood and do not later rise. On the other hand, when flood insurance premiums rise dramatically approximately one year after the flood, these higher rates are capitalized into home values and prices do decline. The findings are consistent with rational and efficient markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Terrance R. Skantz & Thomas H. Strickland, 1987. "House Prices and a Flood Event: An Empirical Investigation of Market Efficiency," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 2(2), pages 75-83.
    • Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:2:n:2:1987:p:75-83
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    2. George W. Gau, 1985. "Public Information and Abnormal Returns in Real Estate Investment," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 13(1), pages 15-31.
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    Cited by:

    1. Maier, Gunther & Herath, Shanaka, 2009. "Real Estate Market Efficiency. A Survey of Literature," SRE-Discussion Papers 402, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    2. Grace Wong, 2004. "Has SARS Infected the Property Market? Evidence from Hong Kong," Working Papers 11, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    3. repec:dau:papers:123456789/7845 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Wong, Grace, 2008. "Has SARS infected the property market Evidence from Hong Kong," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 74-95, January.
    5. repec:pri:indrel:dsp0141687h476 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Carolyn Kousky, 2010. "Learning from Extreme Events: Risk Perceptions after the Flood," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 86(3).
    7. repec:ebl:ecbull:eb-18-00022 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. David M. Harrison & Greg T. Smersh & Arthur L. Schwartz, Jr, 2001. "Environmental Determinants of Housing Prices: The Impact of Flood Zone Status," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 21(1/2), pages 3-20.
    9. Michael LaCour-Little & Arsenio Staer, 2016. "Earthquakes and Price Discovery in the Housing Market: Evidence from New Zealand," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 19(4), pages 493-513.
    10. Russell McKenzie & John Levendis, 2010. "Flood Hazards and Urban Housing Markets: The Effects of Katrina on New Orleans," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 62-76, January.
    11. Daniel, Vanessa E. & Florax, Raymond J.G.M. & Rietveld, Piet, 2009. "Flooding risk and housing values: An economic assessment of environmental hazard," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 355-365, December.
    12. Chris Eves & Sara Wilkinson, 2014. "Assessing the immediate and short-term impact of flooding on residential property participant behaviour," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 71(3), pages 1519-1536, April.
    13. Ghysels, Eric & Plazzi, Alberto & Valkanov, Rossen & Torous, Walter, 2013. "Forecasting Real Estate Prices," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
    14. James R. Meldrum, 2016. "Floodplain Price Impacts by Property Type in Boulder County, Colorado: Condominiums Versus Standalone Properties," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 64(4), pages 725-750, August.
    15. Shih Hsiung Chou & Shih Hung Chih, 2001. "Metropolis: Impact Assessment of Flood Risk on Housing Property Market in Taipei," ERES eres2001_132, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    16. Grislain-Letrémy, Céline, 2012. "Assurance et prévention des catastrophes naturelles et technologiques," Economics Thesis from University Paris Dauphine, Paris Dauphine University, number 123456789/9073 edited by Villeneuve, Bertrand, January.

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    JEL classification:

    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

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