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House Prices and a Flood Event: An Empirical Investigation of Market Efficiency

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Abstract

In this study, house-price reactions to a first-time disastrous flood are investigated. Conventional wisdom predicted prices would decline and later regain lost value as the market forgot the flood. In fact, sample home prices do not fall immediately after the flood and do not later rise. On the other hand, when flood insurance premiums rise dramatically approximately one year after the flood, these higher rates are capitalized into home values and prices do decline. The findings are consistent with rational and efficient markets.

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  • Terrance R. Skantz & Thomas H. Strickland, 1987. "House Prices and a Flood Event: An Empirical Investigation of Market Efficiency," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 2(2), pages 75-83.
    • Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:2:n:2:1987:p:75-83
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    1. Palmquist, Raymond B., 1982. "Measuring environmental effects on property values without hedonic regressions," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 333-347, May.
    2. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    3. George W. Gau, 1985. "Public Information and Abnormal Returns in Real Estate Investment," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 13(1), pages 15-31, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Maier, Gunther & Herath, Shanaka, 2009. "Real Estate Market Efficiency. A Survey of Literature," SRE-Discussion Papers 2009/07, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    2. Grace Wong, 2004. "Has SARS Infected the Property Market? Evidence from Hong Kong," Working Papers 11, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    3. Walter D'Lima & Timothy Komarek & Luis A. Lopez, 2023. "Risk perception in housing markets: Evidence from a fighter jet crash," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 51(4), pages 819-854, July.
    4. Wang, Bingbing, 2022. "Housing market volatility under COVID-19: Diverging response of demand in luxury and low-end housing markets," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    5. repec:dau:papers:123456789/7845 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Wong, Grace, 2008. "Has SARS infected the property market Evidence from Hong Kong," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 74-95, January.
    7. repec:pri:indrel:dsp0141687h476 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Céline Grislain-Letrémy & Bertrand Villeneuve, 2019. "Natural disasters, land-use, and insurance," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 44(1), pages 54-86, March.
    9. Carolyn Kousky, 2010. "Learning from Extreme Events: Risk Perceptions after the Flood," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 86(3).
    10. Ferreira, Susana & Liu, Haiyan & Brewer, Brady, 2018. "The housing market impacts of wastewater injection induced seismicity risk," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 251-269.
    11. Yasuyuki Sawada & Hiroyuki Nakata & Kunio Sekiguchi & Yoko Okuyama, 2018. "Land and Real Estate Price Sensitivity to a Disaster: Evidence from the 2011 Thai Floods," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(1), pages 89-97.
    12. Daniel, Vanessa E. & Florax, Raymond J.G.M. & Rietveld, Piet, 2009. "Flooding risk and housing values: An economic assessment of environmental hazard," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 355-365, December.
    13. David M. Harrison & Greg T. Smersh & Arthur L. Schwartz, Jr, 2001. "Environmental Determinants of Housing Prices: The Impact of Flood Zone Status," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 21(1/2), pages 3-20.
    14. Mutlu, Asli & Roy, Debraj & Filatova, Tatiana, 2023. "Capitalized value of evolving flood risks discount and nature-based solution premiums on property prices," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    15. Michael LaCour-Little & Arsenio Staer, 2016. "Earthquakes and Price Discovery in the Housing Market: Evidence from New Zealand," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 19(4), pages 493-513.
    16. Russell McKenzie & John Levendis, 2010. "Flood Hazards and Urban Housing Markets: The Effects of Katrina on New Orleans," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 62-76, January.
    17. José Armando Cobián Álvarez & Budy P. Resosudarmo, 2019. "The cost of floods in developing countries’ megacities: a hedonic price analysis of the Jakarta housing market, Indonesia," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 21(4), pages 555-577, October.
    18. Wang, Haoying, 2017. "Market Response to Flood Risk: An Empirical Study of Housing Values Using Boundary Discontinuities," MPRA Paper 85493, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Chris Eves & Sara Wilkinson, 2014. "Assessing the immediate and short-term impact of flooding on residential property participant behaviour," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 71(3), pages 1519-1536, April.
    20. Ghysels, Eric & Plazzi, Alberto & Valkanov, Rossen & Torous, Walter, 2013. "Forecasting Real Estate Prices," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 509-580, Elsevier.
    21. James R. Meldrum, 2016. "Floodplain Price Impacts by Property Type in Boulder County, Colorado: Condominiums Versus Standalone Properties," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 64(4), pages 725-750, August.
    22. Donggyu Yi & Hyundo Choi, 2020. "Housing Market Response to New Flood Risk Information and the Impact on Poor Tenant," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 55-79, June.
    23. Shih Hsiung Chou & Shih Hung Chih, 2001. "Metropolis: Impact Assessment of Flood Risk on Housing Property Market in Taipei," ERES eres2001_132, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    24. Randy E. Dumm & Charles Nyce & G. Stacy Sirmans & Greg T. Smersh, 2022. "Pricing Moral Hazard in Residential Properties: The Impact of Sinkhole Claims on House Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 64(1), pages 30-70, January.
    25. Grislain-Letrémy, Céline, 2012. "Assurance et prévention des catastrophes naturelles et technologiques," Economics Thesis from University Paris Dauphine, Paris Dauphine University, number 123456789/9073 edited by Villeneuve, Bertrand.

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    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

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