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Which Parameters Determine the Development of Farm Numbers in Germany?: Dependency of the Results on the Segmentation of the Data

Author

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  • Röder Norbert

    () (Institute of Rural Studies, of the Johann Heinrich von Thu¨ nen-Institute (vTI), Bundesallee 50, 38116 Braunschweig, Germany)

  • Kilian Stefan

    () (TUM(Technische Universita¨ tMu¨ nchen), Environmental Economics and Agricultural Policy Group, Alte Akademie 14, 85350 Freising, Germany)

Abstract

In Germany, agricultural land use is very heterogeneous with respect to management orientation and productivity even at the local level. In addition, there is a wide variation in the reasons for farm exits. A review of the literature shows that a limited number of explanatory variables are generally accepted as being driving forces for farm exit rates. For the majority of indicators, ambiguous results are reported. In this paper, we analyse the determining factors of farm exit rates in Germany by examining municipalities from 1999 to 2007.We evaluate the robustness of the relationship between a set of explanatory variables and farm exit rates at different spatial scales.Our results indicate that the direction of impact of some variables (farm size, population density and the share of ruminants kept at low intensity as a fraction of the total ruminant stock) on farm exit rates is unambiguous throughout Germany. For the majority of the analysed explanatory variables, the strength of their impact on farm exit rates depends on their observation level or regional context.

Suggested Citation

  • Röder Norbert & Kilian Stefan, 2011. "Which Parameters Determine the Development of Farm Numbers in Germany?: Dependency of the Results on the Segmentation of the Data," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 231(3), pages 358-378, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:231:y:2011:i:3:p:358-378
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kimhi, Ayal & Bollman, Ray D., 1999. "Family farm dynamics in Canada and Israel: the case of farm exits," Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 21(1), August.
    2. Ky–sti Pietola & Minna V”re & Alfons Oude Lansink, 2003. "Timing and type of exit from farming: farmers' early retirement programmes in Finland," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 30(1), pages 99-116, March.
    3. Bertaglia, Marco & Joost, Stephane & Roosen, Jutta, 2007. "Identifying European marginal areas in the context of local sheep and goat breeds conservation: A geographic information system approach," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 657-670, June.
    4. Ayal Kimhi, 2000. "Is Part-Time Farming Really a Step in the Way Out of Agricultural?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(1), pages 38-48.
    5. Mann, Stefan, 2003. "Theorie und Empirie agrarstrukturellen Wandels?," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 52(3).
    6. Silke Huettel & Anne Margarian, 2009. "Structural change in the West German agricultural sector," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 40(s1), pages 759-772, November.
    7. Stephan J. Goetz & David L. Debertin, 2001. "Why Farmers Quit: A County-Level Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(4), pages 1010-1023.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexander Gocht & Norbert Röder & Sebastian Neuenfeldt & Hugo Storm & Thomas Heckelei, 2012. "Modelling farm structural change: A feasibility study for ex-post modelling utilizing FADN and FSS data in Germany and developing an ex-ante forecast module for the CAPRI farm type layer baseline," JRC Working Papers JRC75524, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).

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