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Uncertainty, populism and foreign direct investment: the state of play in economic research

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  • Marijana Andrijic

    (Ministry of Finance, Bureau for Macroeconomic and Fiscal Analysis and Projections, Zagreb, Croatia)

Abstract

This paper provides a synthesized, critical overview of the latest economic literature regarding the linkage between three concepts - uncertainty, populism and foreign direct investment. It starts with summarising ways to measure uncertainty in a direct and an indirect manner (with their respective advantages and limitations) and estimate its effects on populism and foreign direct investment. Later on, the paper focuses on the link between populism and foreign direct investment, exploring the possible role of uncertainty in this context. While heightened uncertainty and populism are typically associated with negative economic (including a decline in foreign direct investment) and non-economic outcomes, the nature of these effects and their interpretation are complex and leave room for further investigation. The implications of the research on this topic are wide reaching not only for economic stakeholders, but also for public sector policy practitioners.

Suggested Citation

  • Marijana Andrijic, 2024. "Uncertainty, populism and foreign direct investment: the state of play in economic research," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 48(4), pages 465-491.
    • Handle: RePEc:ipf:psejou:v:48:y:2024:i:4:p:465-491
    DOI: 10.3326/pse.48.4.4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Guiseppe Bertola & Ricardo J. Caballero, 1994. "Irreversibility and Aggregate Investment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(2), pages 223-246.
    4. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
    5. Altig, David & Barrero, Jose Maria & Bloom, Nicholas & Davis, Steven J. & Meyer, Brent & Parker, Nicholas, 2022. "Surveying business uncertainty," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(1), pages 282-303.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    foreign direct investment; uncertainty; populism;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F50 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - General
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General

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