New Product Diffusion with Influentials and Imitators
We model the diffusion of innovations in markets with two segments: who are more in touch with new developments and who affect another segment of whose own adoptions do not affect the influentials. This two-segment structure with asymmetric influence is consistent with several theories in sociology and diffusion research, as well as many “viral” or “network” marketing strategies. We have four main results. (1) Diffusion in a mixture of influentials and imitators can exhibit a dip or “chasm” between the early and later parts of the diffusion curve. (2) The proportion of adoptions stemming from influentials need not decrease monotonically, but may first decrease and then increase. (3) Erroneously specifying a mixed-influence model to a mixture process where influentials act independently from each other can generate systematic changes in the parameter values reported in earlier research. (4) Empirical analysis of 33 different data series indicates that the two-segment model fits better than the standard mixed-influence, the Gamma/Shifted Gompertz, and the Weibull-Gamma models, especially in cases where a two-segment structure is likely to exist. Also, the two-segment model fits about as well as the Karmeshu-Goswami mixed-influence model, in which the coefficients of innovation and imitation vary across potential adopters in a continuous fashion.
Volume (Year): 26 (2007)
Issue (Month): 3 (05-06)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 7240 Parkway Drive, Suite 300, Hanover, MD 21076 USA|
Web page: http://www.informs.org/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Tal Garber & Jacob Goldenberg & Barak Libai & Eitan Muller, 2004. "From Density to Destiny: Using Spatial Dimension of Sales Data for Early Prediction of New Product Success," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(3), pages 419-428, August.
- Gilles Laurent & G. L. Lilien & B. Pras, 1994. "Research Tradition in Marketing," Post-Print hal-00821717, HAL.
- Donald Lehmann & Mercedes Esteban-Bravo, 2006. "When giving some away makes sense to jump-start the diffusion process," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 243-254, December.
- Frank M. Bass, 1969. "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(5), pages 215-227, January.
- Bernard Pras & Gilles Laurent & Gary L. Lilien, 1994. "Research Traditions in Marketing," Post-Print halshs-00150675, HAL.
- Jonathan Beck, 2007.
"The sales effect of word of mouth: a model for creative goods and estimates for novels,"
Journal of Cultural Economics,
Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 31(1), pages 5-23, March.
- Jonathan Beck, 2006. "The Sales Effect of Word of Mouth: A Model for Creative Goods and Estimates for Novels," CIG Working Papers SP II 2006-16, Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin (WZB), Research Unit: Competition and Innovation (CIG).
- Rajkumar Venkatesan & Trichy V. Krishnan & V. Kumar, 2004. "Evolutionary Estimation of Macro-Level Diffusion Models Using Genetic Algorithms: An Alternative to Nonlinear Least Squares," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(3), pages 451-464, August.
- Midgley, David F & Dowling, Grahame R, 1978. " Innovativeness: The Concept and Its Measurement," Journal of Consumer Research, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(4), pages 229-242, March.
- repec:dau:papers:123456789/3445 is not listed on IDEAS
- Christophe Van den Bulte & Gary L. Lilien, 1997. "Bias and Systematic Change in the Parameter Estimates of Macro-Level Diffusion Models," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 16(4), pages 338-353.
- Christophe Van den Bulte & Stefan Stremersch, 2004. "Social Contagion and Income Heterogeneity in New Product Diffusion: A Meta-Analytic Test," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(4), pages 530-544, July.
- Gary L. Lilien & Ambar G. Rao & Shlomo Kalish, 1981. "Bayesian Estimation and Control of Detailing Effort in a Repeat Purchase Diffusion Environment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(5), pages 493-506, May.
- V. Srinivasan & Charlotte H. Mason, 1986. "Technical Note—Nonlinear Least Squares Estimation of New Product Diffusion Models," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 5(2), pages 169-178.
- Williams, Ross A, 1972. "Growth in Ownership of Consumer Durables in the United Kingdom," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 39(153), pages 60-69, February.
- Bart J. Bronnenberg & Carl F. Mela, 2004. "Market Roll-Out and Retailer Adoption for New Brands," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(4), pages 500-518, September.
- Davies, Stephen W., 1979. "Inter-firm diffusion of process innovations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 299-317, October.
- Frenzen, Jonathan & Nakamoto, Kent, 1993. " Structure, Cooperation, and the Flow of Market Information," Journal of Consumer Research, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(3), pages 360-375, December.
- Hernes, Gudmund, 1976. " Diffusion and Growth-The Non-homogeneous Case," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(3), pages 427-436.
- David Godes & Dina Mayzlin, 2004. "Using Online Conversations to Study Word-of-Mouth Communication," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(4), pages 545-560, June.
- William P. Putsis, Jr. & Sridhar Balasubramanian & Edward W. Kaplan & Subrata K. Sen, 1997. "Mixing Behavior in Cross-Country Diffusion," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 16(4), pages 354-369.
- Case, Anne C. & Rosen, Harvey S. & Hines, James Jr., 1993. "Budget spillovers and fiscal policy interdependence : Evidence from the states," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 285-307, October.
- Albert C. Bemmaor & Janghyuk Lee, 2002. "The Impact of Heterogeneity and Ill-Conditioning on Diffusion Model Parameter Estimates," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 21(2), pages 209-220, November.
- van den Bulte, C. & Stremersch, S., 2003. "Contagion and heterogeneity in new product diffusion: An emperical test," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2003-077-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormksc:v:26:y:2007:i:3:p:400-421. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mirko Janc)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.