IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ila/anaeco/v32y2017i1p3-21.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analyzing the Impact of Monetary Policy on Financial Markets in Chile

Author

Listed:
  • Alicia Garcia-Herrero

    (NATIXISand)

  • Eric Girardin

    (Aix-Marseille School of Economics, CNRS, & EHESS)

  • Hermann Gonzalez

    (Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA))

Abstract

During the past few years, monetary policy communication has become a hot topic in as far as it seems to have become a very relevant way for central banks to guide markets, beyond actual monetary policy decisions. This paper investigates this issue empirically for the case of Chile. More specifically, using data from 2005 to 2014 and a Component GARCH model, we assess whether changes in the communication of the Central Bank of Chile generates in particular a permanent or temporary change in the volatility of interest rates, after controlling for changes in monetary policy instruments. Our results show that the volatility in interest rate futures in Chile's swap markets increases following the Central Bank's communication. However, the impact tends to be temporary instead of permanent and only statistically significant in the pre-crisis period. All in all, our results indicate a reduced relevance of Central Bank's communication for short term swap markets which may reflect that market participants have learned to anticipate changes in monetary policy communication, especially after the global financial crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Alicia Garcia-Herrero & Eric Girardin & Hermann Gonzalez, 2017. "Analyzing the Impact of Monetary Policy on Financial Markets in Chile," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 32(1), pages 3-21, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ila:anaeco:v:32:y:2017:i:1:p:3-21
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.rae-ear.org/index.php/rae/article/view/541
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kan Chen & Mario Crucini, 2016. "Trends & Cycles in Small Open Economies:Making the Case for a General Equilibrium Approach," Working Papers 16/12, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    2. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    3. Alicia Garcia-Herrero & Eric Girardin & Enestor Dos Santos, 2015. "Follow what I do and also what I say: monetary policy impact on Brazil’s financial markets," Working Papers 1512, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    4. Zakoian, Jean-Michel, 1994. "Threshold heteroskedastic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 931-955, September.
    5. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. "On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
    6. Chen, Kan & Crucini, Mario J., 2016. "Trends and cycles in small open economies: making the case for a general equilibrium approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 159-168.
    7. Ellis Connolly & Marion Kohler, 2004. "News and Interest Rate Expectations: A Study of Six Central Banks," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Christopher Kent & Simon Guttmann (ed.),The Future of Inflation Targeting, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    8. Rosa, Carlo & Verga, Giovanni, 2007. "On the consistency and effectiveness of central bank communication: Evidence from the ECB," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 146-175, March.
    9. Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J., 1996. "Modeling volatility persistence of speculative returns: A new approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 185-215, July.
    10. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2007. "Communication by Central Bank Committee Members: Different Strategies, Same Effectiveness?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2‐3), pages 509-541, March.
    11. Reeves, Rachel & Sawicki, Michael, 2007. "Do financial markets react to Bank of England communication?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 207-227, March.
    12. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1999. "Price Formation and Liquidity in the U.S. Treasury Market: The Response to Public Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1901-1915, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rai, Anoop & Rojer, Guido & Susanna, Edirel, 2021. "Central bank transparency and market reaction in Brazil, Chile, and Colombia," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    2. Mr. Andrea Pescatori, 2018. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy Surprises in Chile," IMF Working Papers 2018/156, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Mario González & Raúl Tadle, 2018. "Monetary Policy Effects on the Chilean Stock Market: An Automated Content Approach," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 817, Central Bank of Chile.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alicia Garcia-Herrero & Eric Girardin & Enestor Dos Santos, 2015. "Follow what I do and also what I say: monetary policy impact on Brazil’s financial markets," Working Papers 1512, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    2. Alicia Garcia-Herrero & Eric Girardin & Arnoldo Lopez Marmolejo, 2015. "Mexico’s monetary policy communication and money markets," Working Papers 1515, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    3. Alicia Garcia-Herrero & Eric Girardin, 2013. "China's Monetary Policy Communication: Money Markets not only Listen, They also Understand," Working Papers 022013, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    4. Alicia Garcia-Herrero & Eric Girardin & Arnoldo Lopez-Marmolejo, 2019. "Mexico¡¯s Monetary Policy Communication and Money Markets," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(2), pages 81-97, February.
    5. Alan S. Blinder, 2008. "Talking about Monetary Policy: The Virtues (and Vices?) of Central Bank Communication," Working Papers 1048, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    6. Alan S. Blinder, 2008. "Talking about Monetary Policy: The Virtues (and Vices?) of Central Bank Communication," Working Papers 1048, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    7. Ancil Crayton, 2018. "Central Bank Communication and the Yield Curve: A Semi-Automatic Approach using Non-Negative Matrix Factorization," Papers 1809.08718, arXiv.org.
    8. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
    9. repec:pri:cepsud:161blinder is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Rodolfo Tomás Da Fonseca Nicolay & Gabriel Caldas Montes, 2014. "Comunicação Do Banco Central,Expectativas De Inflação E Profecia Auto-Realizável: Evidências Para Obrasil," Anais do XL Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 40th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 046, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    11. repec:pri:cepsud:164blinder is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Thiago Cacicedo Cidad & Gabriel Caldas Montes, 2016. "Does Central Bank’S Perception Regarding The State Of The Economy Affect Entrepreneurs’ Expectations? Are Entrepreneurs’ Expectations Important For Investment? Empirical Evidence From Brazil," Anais do XLIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 43rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 035, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    13. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
    14. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & David Gabauer, 2021. "The impact of Euro through time: Exchange rate dynamics under different regimes," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 1375-1408, January.
    15. Freddy H. CASTRO, 2012. "Senales de política monetaria y movimientos en la estructura a plazo de la tasa de interés en Colombia," Archivos de Economía 9908, Departamento Nacional de Planeación.
    16. Selva Demiralp & Hakan Kara & Pinar Ozlu, 2011. "Monetary Policy Communication Under Inflation Targeting : Do Words Speak Louder Than Actions?," Working Papers 1118, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    17. Conrad, Christian & Karanasos, Menelaos & Zeng, Ning, 2011. "Multivariate fractionally integrated APARCH modeling of stock market volatility: A multi-country study," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 147-159, January.
    18. Mohamed CHIKHI & Claude DIEBOLT & Tapas MISHRA, 2019. "Memory that Drives! New Insights into Forecasting Performance of Stock Prices from SEMIFARMA-AEGAS Model," Working Papers 07-19, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    19. De Santis, Roberto A., 2020. "Impact of the Asset Purchase Programme on euro area government bond yields using market news," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 192-209.
    20. Michael McKenzie & Heather Mitchell & Robert Brooks & Robert Faff, 2001. "Power ARCH modelling of commodity futures data on the London Metal Exchange," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 22-38.
    21. Tae-Hwy Lee & Yong Bao & Burak Saltoğlu, 2007. "Comparing density forecast models Previous versions of this paper have been circulated with the title, 'A Test for Density Forecast Comparison with Applications to Risk Management' since October 2003;," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 203-225.
    22. Hubert Paul, 2017. "Qualitative and quantitative central bank communication and inflation expectations," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 1-41, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; communication; interest rates; Chile; Central Bank;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ila:anaeco:v:32:y:2017:i:1:p:3-21. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Mauricio Tejada (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deilacl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.