IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Towards a Framework for Quantifying Systemic Stability

  • Piergiorgio Alessandri

    (Bank of England)

  • Prasanna Gai

    (Australian National University)

  • Sujit Kapadia

    (Bank of England)

  • Nada Mora

    (Bank of England)

  • Claus Puhr

    (Oesterreichische Nationalbank)

This paper describes a prototype quantitative framework for gauging systemic risk which explicitly characterizes banks’ balance sheets and allows for macro credit risk, interest income risk, market risk, network interactions, and asset-side feedback effects. In presenting our results, we focus on projections for systemwide banking assets in the United Kingdom, considering both unconditional distributions and stress scenarios.We show how a combination of extreme credit and trading losses can precipitate fundamental defaults and trigger contagious default associated with network effects and fire sales of distressed assets. Despite the joint normality of all risk factors, the model generates a bimodal asset distribution.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb09q3a2.pdf
Download Restriction: no

File URL: http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb09q3a2.htm
Download Restriction: no

Article provided by International Journal of Central Banking in its journal International Journal of Central Banking.

Volume (Year): 5 (2009)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 47-81

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2009:q:3:a:2
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.ijcb.org/

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Helmut Elsinger & Alfred Lehar & Martin Summer, 2002. "Risk Assessment for Banking Systems," Working Papers 79, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  2. Gai, Prasanna & Kapadia, Sujit, 2010. "Contagion in financial networks," Bank of England working papers 383, Bank of England.
  3. Sanjiv R. Das & Darrell Duffie & Nikunj Kapadia & Leandro Saita, 2007. "Common Failings: How Corporate Defaults Are Correlated," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 93-117, 02.
  4. PESARAN M. Hashem & SCHUERMANN Til & WEINER Scott, . "Modelling Regional Interdependencies using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," EcoMod2003 330700121, EcoMod.
  5. Adrian, Tobias & Shin, Hyun Song, 2010. "Liquidity and leverage," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 418-437, July.
  6. Claudio Borio & Claudio Mathias Drehmann, 2009. "Towards an operational framework for financial stability: "fuzzy" measurement and its consequences," BIS Working Papers 284, Bank for International Settlements.
  7. Sorge, Marco & Virolainen, Kimmo, 2006. "A comparative analysis of macro stress-testing methodologies with application to Finland," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 113-151, June.
  8. Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song, 1999. "Risk Management with Interdependent Choice," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 52-62, Autumn.
  9. Larry Eisenberg & Thomas H. Noe, 2001. "Systemic Risk in Financial Systems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(2), pages 236-249, February.
  10. Dimitrios P Tsomocos & Charles A.E. Goodhart, 2003. "A Model to Analyse Financial Fragility," Economics Series Working Papers 2003-FE-13, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  11. Prasanna Gai & Sujit Kapadia & Stephen P. Millard & Ander Perez, 2006. "Financial innovation, macroeconomic stability and systemic crises," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
  12. Arturo Bris & Ivo Welch & Ning Zhu, 2006. "The Costs of Bankruptcy: Chapter 7 Liquidation versus Chapter 11 Reorganization," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(3), pages 1253-1303, 06.
  13. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1992. " Liquidation Values and Debt Capacity: A Market Equilibrium Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1343-66, September.
  14. Rodrigo Cifuentes & Gianluigi Ferrucci & Hyun Song Shin, 2005. "Liquidity risk and contagion," Bank of England working papers 264, Bank of England.
  15. James, Christopher, 1991. " The Losses Realized in Bank Failures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1223-42, September.
  16. Stephane Dees & Filippo di Mauro & M. Hashem Pesaran & L. Vanessa Smith, 2005. "Exploring the International Linkages of the Euro Area: a Global VAR Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 1425, CESifo Group Munich.
  17. Dale F. Gray & Robert C. Merton & Zvi Bodie, 2007. "New Framework for Measuring and Managing Macrofinancial Risk and Financial Stability," NBER Working Papers 13607, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Isabel Schnabel & Hyun Song Shin, 2004. "Liquidity and Contagion: The Crisis of 1763," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(6), pages 929-968, December.
  19. Christian Upper, 2007. "Using counterfactual simulations to assess the danger of contagion in interbank markets," BIS Working Papers 234, Bank for International Settlements.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2009:q:3:a:2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Timo Laurmaa)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.