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Towards a Framework for Quantifying Systemic Stability

Author

Listed:
  • Piergiorgio Alessandri

    (Bank of England)

  • Prasanna Gai

    (Australian National University)

  • Sujit Kapadia

    (Bank of England)

  • Nada Mora

    (Bank of England)

  • Claus Puhr

    (Oesterreichische Nationalbank)

Abstract

This paper describes a prototype quantitative framework for gauging systemic risk which explicitly characterizes banks’ balance sheets and allows for macro credit risk, interest income risk, market risk, network interactions, and asset-side feedback effects. In presenting our results, we focus on projections for systemwide banking assets in the United Kingdom, considering both unconditional distributions and stress scenarios.We show how a combination of extreme credit and trading losses can precipitate fundamental defaults and trigger contagious default associated with network effects and fire sales of distressed assets. Despite the joint normality of all risk factors, the model generates a bimodal asset distribution.

Suggested Citation

  • Piergiorgio Alessandri & Prasanna Gai & Sujit Kapadia & Nada Mora & Claus Puhr, 2009. "Towards a Framework for Quantifying Systemic Stability," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(3), pages 47-81, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2009:q:3:a:2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Claus Puhr & Reinhardt Seliger & Michael Sigmund, 2012. "Contagiousness and Vulnerability in the Austrian Interbank Market," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 24, pages 62-78.
    2. Eugenio Cerutti & Stijn Claessens & Patrick McGuire, 2012. "Systemic Risks in Global Banking: What Available Data Can Tell Us and What More Data Are Needed?," NBER Chapters,in: Risk Topography: Systemic Risk and Macro Modeling, pages 235-260 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Upper, Christian, 2011. "Simulation methods to assess the danger of contagion in interbank markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 111-125, August.
    4. Bargigli, Leonardo & Gallegati, Mauro, 2011. "Random digraphs with given expected degree sequences: A model for economic networks," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 78(3), pages 396-411, May.
    5. Souza, Sergio R.S. & Tabak, Benjamin M. & Silva, Thiago C. & Guerra, Solange M., 2015. "Insolvency and contagion in the Brazilian interbank market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 431(C), pages 140-151.
    6. Anand, Kartik & Gai, Prasanna & Kapadia, Sujit & Brennan, Simon & Willison, Matthew, 2013. "A network model of financial system resilience," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 219-235.
    7. Lewis Webber & Matthew Willison, 2011. "Systemic capital requirements," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Macroprudential regulation and policy, volume 60, pages 44-50 Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann, 2011. "Toward an Operational Framework for Financial Stability: “Fuzzy” Measurement and Its Consequences," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Rodrigo Alfaro (ed.), Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking, edition 1, volume 15, chapter 4, pages 063-123 Central Bank of Chile.
    9. Burrows, Oliver & Learmonth, David & McKeown, jack & Williams, Richard, 2012. "RAMSI: a top-down stress-testing model developed at the Bank of England," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 52(3), pages 204-212.
    10. Souza, Sergio Rubens Stancato de, 2016. "Capital requirements, liquidity and financial stability: The case of Brazil," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 179-192.
    11. Batiz-Zuk, Enrique & López-Gallo, Fabrizio & Martínez-Jaramillo, Serafín & Solórzano-Margain, Juan Pablo, 2016. "Calibrating limits for large interbank exposures from a system-wide perspective," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 198-216.
    12. Foti, Nicholas J. & Pauls, Scott & Rockmore, Daniel N., 2013. "Stability of the World Trade Web over time – An extinction analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 1889-1910.
    13. David Aikman & Piergiorgio Alessandri & Bruno Eklund & Prasanna Gai & Sujit Kapadia & Elizabeth Martin & Nada Mora & Gabriel Sterne & Matthew Willison, 2011. "Funding Liquidity Risk in a Quantitative Model of Systemic Stability," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Rodrigo Alfaro (ed.), Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking, edition 1, volume 15, chapter 12, pages 371-410 Central Bank of Chile.
    14. Christian Schmieder & Maher Hasan & Claus Puhr, 2011. "Next Generation Balance Sheet Stress Testing," IMF Working Papers 11/83, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Alessandri, Piergiorgio & Drehmann, Mathias, 2010. "An economic capital model integrating credit and interest rate risk in the banking book," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 730-742, April.
    16. repec:eee:jpolmo:v:40:y:2018:i:2:p:452-475 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Sujit Kapadia & Matthias Drehmann & John Elliott & Gabriel Sterne, 2012. "Liquidity Risk, Cash Flow Constraints, and Systemic Feedbacks," NBER Chapters,in: Quantifying Systemic Risk, pages 29-61 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Langfield, Sam & Liu, Zijun & Ota, Tomohiro, 2014. "Mapping the UK interbank system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 288-303.
    19. Martinez-Jaramillo, Serafin & Alexandrova-Kabadjova, Biliana & Bravo-Benitez, Bernardo & Solórzano-Margain, Juan Pablo, 2014. "An empirical study of the Mexican banking system’s network and its implications for systemic risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 242-265.
    20. Pawe{l} Smaga & Mateusz Wili'nski & Piotr Ochnicki & Piotr Arendarski & Tomasz Gubiec, 2016. "Can banks default overnight? Modeling endogenous contagion on O/N interbank market," Papers 1603.05142, arXiv.org.
    21. N. Foti & S. Pauls & Daniel N. Rockmore, 2011. "Stability of the World Trade Web over Time - An Extinction Analysis," Papers 1104.4380, arXiv.org, revised May 2011.
    22. Koliai, Lyes, 2016. "Extreme risk modeling: An EVT–pair-copulas approach for financial stress tests," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 1-22.
    23. Bargigli, Leonardo & Gallegati, Mauro & Riccetti, Luca & Russo, Alberto, 2014. "Network analysis and calibration of the “leveraged network-based financial accelerator”," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 109-125.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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