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Construction of an Early-Warning System for Vegetable Prices Based on Index Contribution Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Youzhu Li

    () (College of Public Administration, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China)

  • Jingbo Xia

    () (College of Informatics, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China)

  • Chongguang Li

    () (College of Economics and Management, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China)

  • Mingyang Zheng

    () (College of Public Administration, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China)

Abstract

An early-warning indicator screening method is proposed in order to construct an early-warning system for vegetable prices. Through index contribution analysis and the application of a support vector regression algorithm, we compare the results of early warning before and after index optimization. Experimental results show that the proposed early-warning system was significantly improved after indicator optimization by using index contribution analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Youzhu Li & Jingbo Xia & Chongguang Li & Mingyang Zheng, 2015. "Construction of an Early-Warning System for Vegetable Prices Based on Index Contribution Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(4), pages 1-15, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:7:y:2015:i:4:p:3823-3837:d:47536
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vu, Linh & Glewwe, Paul, 2011. "Impacts of Rising Food Prices on Poverty and Welfare in Vietnam," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 36(1), pages 1-14, April.
    2. Geoffrey H. Moore, 1950. "Statistical Indicators of Cyclical Revivals and Recessions," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number moor50-1.
    3. Anderson, Kym & Nelgen, Signe, 2012. "Trade Barrier Volatility and Agricultural Price Stabilization," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 36-48.
    4. Derek Headey & Shenggen Fan, 2008. "Anatomy of a crisis: the causes and consequences of surging food prices," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 375-391, November.
    5. Nikos Alexandratos, 2008. "Food Price Surges: Possible Causes, Past Experience, and Longer Term Relevance," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 34(4), pages 663-697.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    early warning; vegetable prices; SVR; index contribution analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics
    • Q0 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General
    • Q2 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation
    • Q3 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation
    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products

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