Industrial Structure Upgrading and Carbon Emission Intensity: The Mediating Roles of Green Total Factor Productivity and Labor Misallocation

Industrial structure upgrading serves as an important driving force for the sustained and healthy development of the economy, and it has a positive effect on reducing carbon emission intensity. This study uses provincial panel data from China from 2004 to 2019, starting from the dual perspectives of green total factor productivity and labor misallocation, and employs a four-stage mediation regression model to estimate the mechanism of industrial structure upgrading on carbon emission intensity. The research findings show that: for every 1% increase in industrial structure upgrading, carbon emission intensity will decrease by 0.296%; the central region shows the most significant effect, followed by the western region, while the eastern region shows no significant effect. From the view of the influencing mechanism, industrial structure upgrading will promote green total factor productivity and labor misallocation. When each of the two mediating variables increase by 1%, carbon emission intensity will decrease by 0.12% and 0.054%, respectively. Under the influence of industrial structure upgrading, the inhibitory effects of green total factor productivity and labor misallocation on carbon emission intensity have weakened, and the two factors have made it difficult to form a mediating superposition effect within the sample period. The research conclusion provides the policy implications for China to continuously adhere to industrial structure upgrading, pay attention to improving green total factor productivity, and enhance the low-carbon technical level of workers to achieve the “dual carbon” goals.