Does ICT Exacerbate the Consumption-Based Material Footprint? A Re-Examination of SDG12 Challenges in the Digital Era Across G20 Countries

Global resource depletion has intensified scrutiny on Sustainable Development Goal 12 (SDG12), where consumption-based material footprint serves as a critical sustainability metric. Despite its transformative potential, the paradoxical role of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) in resource conservation remains underexplored. This study adopts an extended STIRPAT model as the analytical framework. It employs the Method of Moments Quantile Regression to evaluate the non-linear effects of digitalization-related indicators and other influencing factors on material footprint. The analysis is conducted across different quantiles for G20 countries from 2000 to 2020. The results show that (1) ICT exhibits a substantial positive effect on consumption-based material footprint under all quantiles. This leads to an increase in the material footprint, hindering the G20’s progress toward achieving SDG12. (2) The impact of ICT varies notably, with a more pronounced adverse effect on SDG12 in countries with higher resource consumption. (3) ICT goods export trade, technological innovation, and globalization significantly mitigate ICT’s adverse impact on resource consumption. This study provides targeted recommendations for G20 countries on how to leverage ICT to achieve SDG12 more effectively.