Research and Analysis on the Influencing Factors of China’s Carbon Emissions Based on a Panel Quantile Model

Since the beginning of the new century, China’s carbon emissions have increased significantly, and the country has become the world’s largest carbon emitter. Therefore, determining the influencing factors of carbon emissions is an important issue for policymakers. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces and cities across the country from 2000 to 2018, this study empirically tested how per capita disposable income, industrial structure, urbanization level, average family size, and technological innovation level impacts carbon emissions at different quantile levels by using the panel quantile STIRPAT model. The results showed that per capita disposable income and industrial structure had significant promoting effects on carbon emissions, while urbanization level, average family size, and technological innovation level had significant inhibitory effects on carbon emissions. The main thing is that the emission distributions of the 10th and 90th quantiles of the independent variables were quite different, which shows that the influence of each factor on carbon emissions has obvious heterogeneity at different levels. Specifically, the impact of per capita disposable income and technological innovation level on carbon emissions in low carbon emission areas were higher than that in high carbon emission areas, and the impact of industrial structure, urbanization level, and average household size on carbon emissions in high carbon emission areas was higher. Finally, specific policy implications are provided based on these results.