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Health and Economic Impact Assessment of Transport and Industry PM 2.5 Control Policy in Guangdong Province

Author

Listed:
  • Songyan Ren

    (Guangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510640, China)

  • Peng Wang

    (Guangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510640, China)

  • Hancheng Dai

    (College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China)

  • Daiqing Zhao

    (Guangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510640, China)

  • Toshihiko Masui

    (National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba 300-4352, Japan)

Abstract

PM 2.5 pollution-related diseases lead to additional medical expenses and the loss of working hours, thus affecting the macro-economy. To evaluate the health-related economic impacts of PM 2.5 , the Integrated Assessment Model of Climate, Economic, and Environment (ICEEH), combined with the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model, and a health impact assessment module was constructed. The impact of different air pollution control strategies was analyzed in Guangdong Province by establishing a Without Control (WOC) scenario, an Air Control (AIC) scenario, and a Blue Sky (BLK) scenario. The results show that in the WOC scenario for 2035, the death rate for Guangdong Province is 71,690 persons/year and the loss of working hours is 0.67 h/person/year. In the AIC and BLK scenarios compared with WOC for 2035, the loss of working hours is reduced by 29.8% and 34.3%, and premature deaths are reduced by 33.0% and 37.5%, respectively; GDP would increase by 0.05% and 0.11%, respectively, through strict pollution control policies. Furthermore, improved labor force quality induced by better air conditions would promote the added value in labor-intensive industries, such as agriculture (0.233%), other manufacturing (0.172%), textiles (0.181%), food (0.176%), railways transport (0.137%), and services (0.129%). The added value in the waste (−0.073%), nature gas (−0.076%), and crude oil sectors (−0.072%) would decrease because of the increased investment installment in PM 2.5 treatment equipment.

Suggested Citation

  • Songyan Ren & Peng Wang & Hancheng Dai & Daiqing Zhao & Toshihiko Masui, 2021. "Health and Economic Impact Assessment of Transport and Industry PM 2.5 Control Policy in Guangdong Province," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-22, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:23:p:13049-:d:687669
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wang, Peng & Dai, Han-cheng & Ren, Song-yan & Zhao, Dai-qing & Masui, Toshihiko, 2015. "Achieving Copenhagen target through carbon emission trading: Economic impacts assessment in Guangdong Province of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 212-227.
    2. Hanna, Rema & Oliva, Paulina, 2015. "The effect of pollution on labor supply: Evidence from a natural experiment in Mexico City," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 68-79.
    3. Joshua Graff Zivin & Matthew Neidell, 2012. "The Impact of Pollution on Worker Productivity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(7), pages 3652-3673, December.
    4. Jean-Marc Burniaux & Jean Chateau, 2008. "An Overview of the OECD ENV-Linkages Model," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 653, OECD Publishing.
    5. Zhang, Daisheng & Aunan, Kristin & Martin Seip, Hans & Larssen, Steinar & Liu, Jianhui & Zhang, Dingsheng, 2010. "The assessment of health damage caused by air pollution and its implication for policy making in Taiyuan, Shanxi, China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 491-502, January.
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    1. Jiang, Keyang & Zhou, Ying & Zhang, Zhihui & Chen, Shaoqing & Qiu, Rongliang, 2024. "Simulating the economic and health impacts of synergistic emission reduction from accelerated energy transition in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area between 2020 and 2050," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 364(C).

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