A Panel Investigation of High-Speed Rail (HSR) and Urban Transport on China’s Carbon Footprint

Rapid urbanization and industrialization in Chinese cities have substantially elevated carbon emissions, and transportation plays a major role in these emissions. Due to data availability, research on the impact of both high-speed rail (HSR) and other urban transportation modes on urban carbon emissions is rare. Using a relatively large panel of 194 Chinese cities from 2008–2013, we examine the impact of HSR, conventional rail, bus, roads, and subways on urban carbon emissions. We further document the interaction of these transport modes with geo-economic variables, and more accurately measure HSR’s impact on emissions using a comprehensive accessibility metric. During this time, China developed, constructed and began to operate an extensive HSR network. Our results show that increases in HSR lead to rises in carbon emissions, emissions per GDP unit and per capita. We also find that transportation’s impact on carbon emissions differs by city size and region, and transportation modes significantly interact with GDP, population and urban area to affect carbon emissions. These interactions imply that the government’s promotion of HSR over conventional rail may have unintended consequences and boost urban carbon emissions.