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High-speed Rail's impact on airline demand and air carbon emissions in China

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  • Strauss, Jack
  • Li, Hongchang
  • Cui, Jinli

Abstract

We construct an extensive data set comprising all air and high-speed rail (HSR) routes in China. We estimate that commercial air travel emits seven times the carbon emissions per passenger kilometer than HSR. Results demonstrate a strong link between air travel and air carbon emissions. Increases in China's HSR routes have contributed to significant and large negative impacts on air travel and accompanying air carbon emissions. Mode substitution from air travel to HSR has led to an 18% decline in air carbon emissions in recent years, saving the environment an annual 12 million metric tons in net carbon emissions. We determine that a $35 carbon tax could generate an additional decline of air carbon emission of 6 million tons and a net reduction of 5.3 million tons. Hence, to lower carbon emissions, policymakers can consider a carbon tax and transport policies to encourage a modal shift from air travel to HSR.

Suggested Citation

  • Strauss, Jack & Li, Hongchang & Cui, Jinli, 2021. "High-speed Rail's impact on airline demand and air carbon emissions in China," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 85-97.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:109:y:2021:i:c:p:85-97
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2021.05.019
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    High-speed rail (HSR); Civil aviation; Carbon emission; Carbon Tax;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R4 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics
    • R42 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Government and Private Investment Analysis; Road Maintenance; Transportation Planning
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure

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