IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jrisks/v6y2018i4p104-d171293.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Three Different Ways Synchronization Can Cause Contagion in Financial Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Naji Massad

    (Centre d’Economie de la Sorbonne, Université Paris 1 Pantheon-Sorbonne, Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112 Boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75647 Paris, CEDEX 13, France)

  • Jørgen Vitting Andersen

    (Centre d’Economie de la Sorbonne, Université Paris 1 Pantheon-Sorbonne, Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112 Boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75647 Paris, CEDEX 13, France
    CNRS and Centre d’Economie de la Sorbonne, Université Paris 1 Pantheon-Sorbonne, Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112 Boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75647 Paris, CEDEX 13, France)

Abstract

We introduce tools to capture the dynamics of three different pathways, in which the synchronization of human decision-making could lead to turbulent periods and contagion phenomena in financial markets. The first pathway is caused when stock market indices, seen as a set of coupled integrate-and-fire oscillators, synchronize in frequency. The integrate-and-fire dynamics happens due to “change blindness”, a trait in human decision-making where people have the tendency to ignore small changes, but take action when a large change happens. The second pathway happens due to feedback mechanisms between market performance and the use of certain (decoupled) trading strategies. The third pathway occurs through the effects of communication and its impact on human decision-making. A model is introduced in which financial market performance has an impact on decision-making through communication between people. Conversely, the sentiment created via communication has an impact on financial market performance. The methodologies used are: agent based modeling, models of integrate-and-fire oscillators, and communication models of human decision-making.

Suggested Citation

  • Naji Massad & Jørgen Vitting Andersen, 2018. "Three Different Ways Synchronization Can Cause Contagion in Financial Markets," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-13, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:6:y:2018:i:4:p:104-:d:171293
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/6/4/104/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/6/4/104/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-1025, July.
    2. Poledna, Sebastian & Thurner, Stefan & Farmer, J. Doyne & Geanakoplos, John, 2014. "Leverage-induced systemic risk under Basle II and other credit risk policies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 199-212.
    3. Dilip Abreu & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2003. "Bubbles and Crashes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 173-204, January.
    4. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1992. "International Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 745-775, August.
    5. Hélène Rey, 2015. "Dilemma not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence," NBER Working Papers 21162, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Yi-Fang Liu & Jørgen Vitting Andersen & Philippe de Peretti, 2016. "Onset of financial instability studied via agent-based models," Post-Print hal-01397400, HAL.
    7. Stéphane Dées & Nico Zorell, 2012. "Business Cycle Synchronisation: Disentangling Trade and Financial Linkages," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 623-643, September.
    8. Lucia Bellenzier & Jørgen Vitting Andersen & Giulia Rotundo, 2016. "Contagion in the World's Stock Exchanges Seen as a Set of Coupled Oscillators," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01215620, HAL.
    9. Yi-Fang Liu & Jørgen Vitting Andersen & Philippe de Peretti, 2016. "Onset of financial instability studied via agent-based models," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01397400, HAL.
    10. Bellenzier, Lucia & Vitting Andersen, Jørgen & Rotundo, Giulia, 2016. "Contagion in the world's stock exchanges seen as a set of coupled oscillators," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 224-236.
    11. Jørgen Vitting Andersen & Andrzej Nowak, 2013. "An Introduction to Socio-Finance," Springer Books, Springer, edition 127, number 978-3-642-41944-7, September.
    12. D.Sornette & J.V. Andersen, 2003. "The Dollar Game," THEMA Working Papers 2003-30, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    13. Aymanns, Christoph & Georg, Co-Pierre, 2015. "Contagious synchronization and endogenous network formation in financial networks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 273-285.
    14. Abreu, Dilip & Brunnermeier, Markus K., 2002. "Synchronization risk and delayed arbitrage," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 341-360.
    15. Spyros Spyrou, 2013. "Herding in financial markets: a review of the literature," Review of Behavioral Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 5(2), pages 175-194, November.
    16. Devenow, Andrea & Welch, Ivo, 1996. "Rational herding in financial economics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 603-615, April.
    17. Challet, D. & Zhang, Y.-C., 1997. "Emergence of cooperation and organization in an evolutionary game," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 246(3), pages 407-418.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jarosław Duda & Henryk Gurgul & Robert Syrek, 2022. "Multi-feature evaluation of financial contagion," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 30(4), pages 1167-1194, December.
    2. Krzysztof Brania & Henryk Gurgul, 2021. "Contagion effects on capital and forex markets around GFC and COVID-19 crises. A comparative study," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 31(2), pages 59-92.
    3. Matteo Cinelli & Giovanna Ferraro & Antonio Iovanella & Giulia Rotundo, 2021. "Assessing the impact of incomplete information on the resilience of financial networks," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 721-745, April.
    4. D'Arcangelis, Anna Maria & Rotundo, Giulia, 2021. "Herding in mutual funds: A complex network approach," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 679-686.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Naji Massad & Jørgen Vitting Andersen, 2018. "Three Different Ways Synchronization Can Cause Contagion in Financial Markets," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01951164, HAL.
    2. Naji Massad & J{o}rgen Vitting Andersen, 2019. "Three Different Ways Synchronization Can Cause Contagion in Financial Markets," Papers 1902.10800, arXiv.org.
    3. Naji Massad & Jørgen Vitting Andersen, 2017. "Three different ways synchronization can cause contagion in financial markets," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01673333, HAL.
    4. Naji Massad & Jørgen Vitting Andersen, 2018. "Three Different Ways Synchronization Can Cause Contagion in Financial Markets," Post-Print hal-01951164, HAL.
    5. Naji Massad & Jørgen Vitting Andersen, 2017. "Three different ways synchronization can cause contagion in financial markets," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 17059, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    6. Naji Massad & Jørgen Vitting Andersen, 2017. "Three different ways synchronization can cause contagion in financial markets," Post-Print halshs-01673333, HAL.
    7. Fries, Claudia & Kappler, Marcus, 2015. "Does foreign direct investment synchronise business cycles? Results from a panel approach," ZEW Discussion Papers 15-031, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    8. N. Antonakakis & G. Tondl, 2014. "Does integration and economic policy coordination promote business cycle synchronization in the EU?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 541-575, August.
    9. Krzysztof Beck & Ntokozo Patrick Nzimande, 2023. "Labor mobility and business cycle synchronization in Southern Africa," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 159-179, February.
    10. Krzysztof Beck, 2022. "Macroeconomic policy coordination and the European business cycle: Accounting for model uncertainty and reverse causality," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(4), pages 1095-1114, October.
    11. Kim, Kyunghun & Pyun, Ju Hyun, 2018. "Exchange rate regimes and the international transmission of business cycles: Capital account openness matters," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 44-61.
    12. Edmonds, Christopher T. & Edmonds, Jennifer E. & Fu, Richard & Jenkins, David S., 2018. "Price momentum and the premium for meeting or beating analysts' forecasts of earnings," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 34-47.
    13. Molestina Vivar, Luis & Wedow, Michael & Weistroffer, Christian, 2023. "Burned by leverage? Flows and fragility in bond mutual funds," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 354-380.
    14. Svatopluk KAPOUNEK & Jitka POMĚNKOVÁ, 2013. "The endogeneity of optimum currency area criteria in the context of financial crisis: Evidence from the time-frequency domain analysis," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 59(9), pages 389-395.
    15. Michael Artis & Toshihiro Okubo, 2008. "The Intranational Business Cycle: Evidence from Japan," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 101, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    16. Galariotis, Emilios C. & Rong, Wu & Spyrou, Spyros I., 2015. "Herding on fundamental information: A comparative study," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 589-598.
    17. Chang, Xiaochen & Guo, Songlin & Huang, Junkai, 2022. "Kidnapped mutual funds: Irrational preference of naive investors and fund incentive distortion," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    18. Henryk Bak & Sebastian Maciejewski, 2015. "Asymmetric shocks and international risk sharing in the European Monetary Union and the European Union," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 46(6), pages 523-564.
    19. Kaizoji, Taisei & Sornette, Didier, 2008. "Market Bubbles and Chrashes," MPRA Paper 15204, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. D'Arcangelis, Anna Maria & Rotundo, Giulia, 2021. "Herding in mutual funds: A complex network approach," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 679-686.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:6:y:2018:i:4:p:104-:d:171293. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.