IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jjrfmx/v15y2022i9p403-d911927.html

Interest Rates, House Prices, Fertility, and the Macroeconomy

Author

Listed:
  • Ermanno Affuso

    (Department of Economics, Finance and Real Estate, University of South Alabama, Mobile, AL 36688, USA)

  • Khandokar Istiak

    (Department of Economics, Finance and Real Estate, University of South Alabama, Mobile, AL 36688, USA)

  • James Swofford

    (Department of Economics, Finance and Real Estate, University of South Alabama, Mobile, AL 36688, USA)

Abstract

This study differentiates between housing wealth and financial wealth and investigates whether changes in house prices and changes in interest rates have positive effects on the fertility rate. The study uses U.S. data between 1975–2020, a structural VAR model, and a Toda–Yamamoto causality test to perform the empirical investigation. The results show that changes in house prices and interest rates have a significant positive effect on changes in the fertility rate. The causality test finds that unidirectional causality exists between house prices and interest rates and fertility. The results indicate that children are consumer durable goods. The study predicts that a high fertility rate could be a by-product of an easy monetary policy through the channel of high house prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Ermanno Affuso & Khandokar Istiak & James Swofford, 2022. "Interest Rates, House Prices, Fertility, and the Macroeconomy," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-17, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:15:y:2022:i:9:p:403-:d:911927
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/15/9/403/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/15/9/403/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gary S. Becker & H. Gregg Lewis, 1974. "Interaction between Quantity and Quality of Children," NBER Chapters, in: Economics of the Family: Marriage, Children, and Human Capital, pages 81-90, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Dettling, Lisa J. & Kearney, Melissa S., 2014. "House prices and birth rates: The impact of the real estate market on the decision to have a baby," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 82-100.
    3. Daysal, N. Meltem & Lovenheim, Michael & Siersbæk, Nikolaj & Wasser, David N., 2021. "Home prices, fertility, and early-life health outcomes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    4. William A. V. Clark & Daichun Yi & Xin Zhang, 2020. "Do House Prices Affect Fertility Behavior in China? An Empirical Examination," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 43(5), pages 423-449, September.
    5. Tomáš Sobotka & Vegard Skirbekk & Dimiter Philipov, 2011. "Economic Recession and Fertility in the Developed World," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 37(2), pages 267-306, June.
    6. Barro, Robert J & Becker, Gary S, 1989. "Fertility Choice in a Model of Economic Growth," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 481-501, March.
    7. Atalay, Kadir & Li, Ang & Whelan, Stephen, 2017. "Housing Wealth and Fertility: Australian Evidence," Working Papers 2017-08, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    8. Istiak, Khandokar & Serletis, Apostolos, 2020. "Risk, uncertainty, and leverage," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 257-273.
    9. Ronald Lee, 1987. "Population dynamics of humans and other animals," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 24(4), pages 443-465, November.
    10. Liu, Jing & Xing, Chunbing & Zhang, Qiong, 2020. "House price, fertility rates and reproductive intentions," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Song, Wei & Yang, Yibai, 2024. "Monetary policy in a Schumpeterian economy with endogenous fertility and human capital accumulation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    2. David Gray, 2023. "What Can District Migration Rates Tell Us about London’s Functional Urban Area?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-18, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tunye Qiu, 2025. "Does urban housing affordability affect fertility in China," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 42(4), pages 1-34, December.
    2. Meng, Lina & Peng, Lu & Zhou, Yinggang, 2023. "Do housing booms reduce fertility intentions? Evidence from the new two-child policy in China," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    3. Bernardus van Doornik & Dimas Fazio & Tarun Ramadorai & Janis Skrastins, 2024. "Housing and Fertility," Working Papers Series 612, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    4. Chen, Nana & Xu, Hangtian, 2021. "Why has the birth rate relatively increased in China's wealthy cities?," MPRA Paper 105960, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Wei Zou & Ruiqi Ma & Zhaojun Ma & Panpan Zheng, 2026. "How informal institutions matter: clan culture and fertility in China," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 17-59, March.
    6. Nana Chen & Yi Min & Hangtian Xu & Shuhan Chen, 2025. "The differential effects of childbearing on household economic decisions: The contrast between the first and second child," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 39(1), pages 23-48, March.
    7. Larry E. Jones & Alice Schoonbroodt & Michèle Tertilt, 2010. "Fertility Theories: Can They Explain the Negative Fertility-Income Relationship?," NBER Chapters, in: Demography and the Economy, pages 43-100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Chiara Ludovica Comolli, 2017. "The fertility response to the Great Recession in Europe and the United States: Structural economic conditions and perceived economic uncertainty," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 36(51), pages 1549-1600.
    9. Éva Berde & Izabella Kuncz, 2017. "Possible Paths for GDP Per Capita – Simulation with a Demographic Growth Model," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 16(4), pages 36-57.
    10. Awaworyi Churchill, Sefa & Smyth, Russell & Trinh, Trong-Anh & Yew, Siew Ling, 2022. "Local crime and fertility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 312-331.
    11. Ang, Geer & Tan, Ya & Zhai, Yingjia & Zhang, Fan & Zhang, Qinghua, 2024. "Housing wealth, fertility and children's health in China: A regression discontinuity design," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    12. Nakamura, Nobuyuki & Suzuki, Aya, 2023. "Impact of foreign domestic workers on the fertility decision of households: evidence from Hong Kong," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 89(1), pages 105-135, March.
    13. Li, Keyang & Tang, Yixun & Wang, Qiuyi, 2025. "Impact of fertility relaxation on the housing market outcomes," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    14. Coskun, Sena & Dalgic, Husnu C., 2024. "The emergence of procyclical fertility: The role of breadwinner women," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    15. Ehrlich, Isaac & Lui, Francis, 1997. "The problem of population and growth: A review of the literature from Malthus to contemporary models of endogenous population and endogenous growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 205-242, January.
    16. Yuting BAI & Jun Hyung KIM & Anqi LI & Shiko MARUYAMA & Zhe YANG, 2025. "A House for My Family: The impacts of down payment rate on marriage and fertility," Discussion papers 25056, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    17. E. S. Vakulenko & R. Y. Evgrafova & I. A. Trofimenko, 2026. "Loans vs. Lives: Credit Obligations and Childbirth in Russia," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 45(2), pages 1-26, April.
    18. Li, Wenchao, 2024. "Do surging house prices discourage fertility? Global evidence, 1870–2012," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    19. Kota Ogasawara & Mizuki Komura, 2022. "Consequences of war: Japan’s demographic transition and the marriage market," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(3), pages 1037-1069, July.
    20. Slätis, Victor, 2026. "The Modernity Trap : Structural Constraints on Fertility in Wealthy Democracies," SocArXiv xbe6p_v1, Center for Open Science.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:15:y:2022:i:9:p:403-:d:911927. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask MDPI Indexing Manager to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.