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What Can District Migration Rates Tell Us about London’s Functional Urban Area?

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  • David Gray

    (Department of Accountancy Finance and Economics, University of Lincoln, Lincoln LN6 7TS, UK)

Abstract

In the early 1990s, Anthony Fielding coined the term ‘escalator region’ to describe how London and the South East attracted those with greater human capital by offering them superior career prospects and enhanced returns in the housing markets. When delineating a housing or labour market area, it is not uncommon to require high levels of migration and commuting within the market area relative to those that cross the area’s boundaries. Net migration flows to and from this escalator region change depending on the age range one examines, making migration across boundaries relatively high. It is proposed that focusing on age ranges that reflect younger adults would capture the extent of the market. In particular, the birth of a first child is likely to trigger migration, but that movement is constrained to be within the boundary of the market area. The decision to buy a dwelling would be made around the time of this event. This paper delineates market areas using spatial autocorrelation. This has the advantage of using a statistical criterion rather than a containment value. Broadly similar areas in the Greater South East are revealed using relative housing affordability measures, the movement of infants and the migration of 20- to 24-year-olds. It is argued that the time-varying patterns of migration of 30- to 39-year-olds is reflective of a change in housing affordability, forcing more households to migrate with children whilst renting.

Suggested Citation

  • David Gray, 2023. "What Can District Migration Rates Tell Us about London’s Functional Urban Area?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-18, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:16:y:2023:i:2:p:89-:d:1055218
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Niels Kooiman & Jan Latten & Marco Bontje, 2018. "Human Capital Migration: A Longitudinal Perspective," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 109(5), pages 644-660, December.
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    4. David Paul Gray, 2022. "How Have District-Based House Price Earnings Ratios Evolved in England and Wales?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-14, August.
    5. Eichholtz, Piet & Lindenthal, Thies, 2014. "Demographics, human capital, and the demand for housing," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 19-32.
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