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COVID-19 Pandemic and Financial Contagion

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  • Julien Chevallier

    (Department of Economics & Management, IPAG Business School (IPAG Lab), 184 bd Saint-Germain, 75006 Paris, France
    Economics Department, Université Paris 8 (LED), 2 rue de la Liberté, CEDEX 93526 Saint-Denis, France)

Abstract

The original contribution of this paper is to empirically document the contagion of the Covid-19 on financial markets. We merge databases from Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Center, Oxford-Man Institute Realized Library, NYU Volatility Lab, and St-Louis Federal Reserve Board. We deploy three types of models throughout our experiments: (i) the Susceptible-Infective-Removed (SIR) that predicts the infections’ peak on 2020-03-27; (ii) volatility (GARCH), correlation (DCC), and risk-management (Value-at-Risk (VaR)) models that relate how bears painted Wall Street red; and, (iii) data-science trees algorithms with forward prunning, mosaic plots, and Pythagorean forests that crunch the data on confirmed, deaths, and recovered Covid-19 cases and then tie them to high-frequency data for 31 stock markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Julien Chevallier, 2020. "COVID-19 Pandemic and Financial Contagion," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-25, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:13:y:2020:i:12:p:309-:d:455854
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    Cited by:

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    2. Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Lucey, Brian M. & Kumar, Satish, 2023. "Border disputes, conflicts, war, and financial markets research: A systematic review," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    3. Mohamed Yousfi & Abderrazak Dhaoui & Houssam Bouzgarrou, 2021. "Risk Spillover during the COVID-19 Global Pandemic and Portfolio Management," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-29, May.
    4. Constantin Anghelache & Mădălina-Gabriela Anghel & Ștefan Virgil Iacob & Mirela Panait & Irina Gabriela Rădulescu & Alina Gabriela Brezoi & Adrian Miron, 2022. "The Effects of Health Crisis on Economic Growth, Health and Movement of Population," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-22, April.
    5. Letife Özdemir & Ercan OZEN & Simon Grima & Inna RomÄ nova, 2021. "Determining the Return Volatility of Major Stock Markets Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic by Applying the EGARCH Model," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business (continues Analele Stiintifice), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 68(4), pages 405-419, October.
    6. Belhassine, Olfa & Karamti, Chiraz, 2021. "Contagion and portfolio management in times of COVID-19," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 73-86.
    7. Julien Chevallier, 2020. "COVID-19 Outbreak and CO 2 Emissions: Macro-Financial Linkages," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-18, December.
    8. Jialei Jiang & Eun-Mi Park & Seong-Taek Park, 2021. "The Impact of the COVID-19 on Economic Sustainability—A Case Study of Fluctuation in Stock Prices for China and South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-17, June.
    9. Syed Abul, Basher & Perry, Sadorsky, 2022. "Forecasting Bitcoin price direction with random forests: How important are interest rates, inflation, and market volatility?," MPRA Paper 113293, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Jorge Omar Razo-De-Anda & Luis Lorenzo Romero-Castro & Francisco Venegas-Martínez, 2023. "Contagion Patterns Classification in Stock Indices: A Functional Clustering Analysis Using Decision Trees," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-27, July.
    11. Lin, Weinan & Ouyang, Ruolan & Zhang, Xuan & Zhuang, Chengkai, 2023. "Network analysis of international financial markets contagion based on volatility indexes," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).

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