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Measuring and Disentangling Ambiguity and Confidence in the Lab

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  • Daniela Di Cagno

    () (Department of Economics and Finance, Luiss Guido Carli, 00198 Rome, Italy)

  • Daniela Grieco

    () (Department of Economics, Bocconi University, 20136 Milano, Italy)

Abstract

In this paper we present a novel experimental procedure aimed at better understanding the interaction between confidence and ambiguity attitudes in individual decision making. Different ambiguity settings not only can be determined by the lack of information in possible scenarios completely “external” to the decision-maker, but can also be a consequence of the decision maker’s ignorance about her own characteristics or performance and, thus, deals with confidence. We design a multistage experiment where subjects face different sources of ambiguity and where we are able to control for self-assessed levels of competence. By means of a Principal Component Analysis, we obtain a set of measures of “internal” and “external” ambiguity aversion. Our regressions show that the two measures are significantly correlated at the subject level, that the subjects’ “internal” ambiguity aversion increases in performance in the high-competence task and that “external” ambiguity aversion moderately increases in earnings. Self-selection does not play any role.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniela Di Cagno & Daniela Grieco, 2019. "Measuring and Disentangling Ambiguity and Confidence in the Lab," Games, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(1), pages 1-22, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jgames:v:10:y:2019:i:1:p:9-:d:206940
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ambiguity; confidence; competence; precision; self-selection;

    JEL classification:

    • C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods
    • C7 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory
    • C70 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - General
    • C71 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Cooperative Games
    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games

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