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Integrated Simulation Model for Energy Security Evaluation

Author

Listed:
  • Yudha Prambudia

    () (Graduate School of System Design and Management, Keio University, Collaboration Complex, 4-1-1 Hiyoshi, Kohoku-ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa 223-8526, Japan)

  • Masaru Nakano

    () (Graduate School of System Design and Management, Keio University, Collaboration Complex, 4-1-1 Hiyoshi, Kohoku-ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa 223-8526, Japan)

Abstract

Energy security is a difficult issue to evaluate due to its polysemic and multifaceted nature. Recent studies have evaluated energy security by considering a multitude of dimensions ( i.e. , availability, affordability, etc. ). However, these works lack coherence, as performance in one dimension is not necessarily relevant to performance in others. Due to this consideration, an ex-ante evaluation ( i.e. , policy analysis) of energy security cannot be reliably performed. This paper proposes an integrated simulation approach to address this apparent shortcoming. We consider energy security performance as a feature that emerges from interactions between the components of energy security dimensions. Integration is completed by identifying and establishing relationships between these components. A model is developed for the simulation that uses system dynamics as a modeling tool. The evaluation of Indonesia’s energy security is presented as an example. It is found that the policies intended to improve Indonesia’s energy security may conflict with each other. Increasing energy production will maintain the performance of the availability dimension at a high level in the short term, but this benefit is outweighed by the resulting degradation to the performance of the acceptability dimension. Subsidy elimination will increase the availability of energy due to lower energy consumption at the expense of maintaining energy affordability for the public. This study shows that the interrelationships between the dimensions of energy security is an important aspect to consider in energy security evaluations, as they can reveal tradeoffs between policies and improve the reliability of analyses.

Suggested Citation

  • Yudha Prambudia & Masaru Nakano, 2012. "Integrated Simulation Model for Energy Security Evaluation," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(12), pages 1-25, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:5:y:2012:i:12:p:5086-5110:d:21938
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Winzer, Christian, 2012. "Conceptualizing energy security," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 36-48.
    2. von Hippel, David & Suzuki, Tatsujiro & Williams, James H. & Savage, Timothy & Hayes, Peter, 2011. "Energy security and sustainability in Northeast Asia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 6719-6730.
    3. Von Hippel, David & Savage, Timothy & Hayes, Peter, 2011. "Introduction to the Asian Energy Security project: Project organization and methodologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 6712-6718.
    4. Budy P Resosudarmo & Ariana Alisjahbana & Ditya Agung Nurdianto, 2010. "Energy Security in Indonesia," Departmental Working Papers 2010-08, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    5. Chi, K.C. & Reiner, D.M. & Nuttall, W.J., 2009. "Dynamics of the UK Natural Gas Industry: System Dynamics Modelling and Long-Term Energy Policy Analysis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0922, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    6. Kiani, Behdad & Ali Pourfakhraei, Mohammad, 2010. "A system dynamic model for production and consumption policy in Iran oil and gas sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(12), pages 7764-7774, December.
    7. Vivoda, Vlado, 2010. "Evaluating energy security in the Asia-Pacific region: A novel methodological approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 5258-5263, September.
    8. Chester, Lynne, 2010. "Conceptualising energy security and making explicit its polysemic nature," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 887-895, February.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ahmad Fazlizan & Wen Tong Chong & Sook Yee Yip & Wooi Ping Hew & Sin Chew Poh, 2015. "Design and Experimental Analysis of an Exhaust Air Energy Recovery Wind Turbine Generator," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(7), pages 1-19, June.
    2. repec:eee:rensus:v:77:y:2017:i:c:p:423-439 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Erahman, Qodri Febrilian & Purwanto, Widodo Wahyu & Sudibandriyo, Mahmud & Hidayatno, Akhmad, 2016. "An assessment of Indonesia's energy security index and comparison with seventy countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 364-376.
    4. Fangzheng Li & Shasha Lu & Yinan Sun & Xiong Li & Benye Xi & Weiqi Liu, 2015. "Integrated Evaluation and Scenario Simulation for Forest Ecological Security of Beijing Based on System Dynamics Model," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(10), pages 1-29, October.
    5. Fangzheng Li & Yinan Sun & Xiong Li & Xinhua Hao & Wanyi Li & Yun Qian & Haimeng Liu & Haiyan Sun, 2016. "Research on the Sustainable Development of Green-Space in Beijing Using the Dynamic Systems Model," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(10), pages 1-17, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    integrated simulation; model; energy security; policy analysis; Indonesia;

    JEL classification:

    • Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics
    • Q0 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • Q49 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Other

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