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A system dynamic model for production and consumption policy in Iran oil and gas sector


  • Kiani, Behdad
  • Ali Pourfakhraei, Mohammad


A system dynamic model is presented, which considers the feedback between supply and demand and oil revenue of the existing system in Iran considering different sectors of the economy. Also the export of the oil surplus and the injection of the gas surplus into the oil reservoirs are seen in the model by establishing a balance between supply and demand. In this model the counter-effects and existing system feedbacks between supply and demand and oil revenue can be seen considering different sectors of the economy. As a result, the effects of oil and gas policies in different scenarios for different sectors of Iran's economy together with the counter-effects of energy consumption and oil revenue are examined. Three scenarios, which show the worst, base and ideal cases, are considered to find future trends of major variables such as seasonal gas consumption in power plants, seasonal injected gas in oil reservoirs, economic growth in the industrial sector, oil consumption in the transportation sector, industrial gas consumption and exported gas. For example, it is shown that the exported gas will reach between 500 and 620 million cubic-meter per day in different scenarios and export revenues can reach up to $500 billion by 2025.

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  • Kiani, Behdad & Ali Pourfakhraei, Mohammad, 2010. "A system dynamic model for production and consumption policy in Iran oil and gas sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(12), pages 7764-7774, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:12:p:7764-7774

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Kong Chyong Chi & David M. Reiner & William J. Nuttall, 2009. "Dynamics of the UK Natural Gas Industry: System Dynamics Modelling and Long-Term Energy Policy Analysis," Working Papers EPRG 0913, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    2. Urban, F. & Benders, R.M.J. & Moll, H.C., 2007. "Modelling energy systems for developing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 3473-3482, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Li, Qiang & Zhang, Wenjuan & Li, Huiquan & He, Peng, 2017. "CO2 emission trends of China's primary aluminum industry: A scenario analysis using system dynamics model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 225-235.
    2. Nasre Esfahani, Mohammad & Rasoulinezhad, Ehsan, 2016. "Revisiting the relationships between non-renewable energy consumption, CO2 emissions and economic growth in Iran," MPRA Paper 71124, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Yunna, Wu & Kaifeng, Chen & Yisheng, Yang & Tiantian, Feng, 2015. "A system dynamics analysis of technology, cost and policy that affect the market competition of shale gas in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 235-243.
    4. Ansari, Nastaran & Seifi, Abbas, 2013. "A system dynamics model for analyzing energy consumption and CO2 emission in Iranian cement industry under various production and export scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 75-89.
    5. Ghorbani, Afshin & Rahimpour, Hamid Reza & Ghasemi, Younes & Zoughi, Somayeh & Rahimpour, Mohammad Reza, 2014. "A Review of Carbon Capture and Sequestration in Iran: Microalgal Biofixation Potential in Iran," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 73-100.
    6. Shin, Juneseuk & Shin, Wan-Seon & Lee, Changyong, 2013. "An energy security management model using quality function deployment and system dynamics," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 72-86.
    7. Ansari, Nastaran & Seifi, Abbas, 2012. "A system dynamics analysis of energy consumption and corrective policies in Iranian iron and steel industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 334-343.
    8. Amirnekooei, K. & Ardehali, M.M. & Sadri, A., 2012. "Integrated resource planning for Iran: Development of reference energy system, forecast, and long-term energy-environment plan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 374-385.
    9. Dudlák, Tamás, 2018. "After the sanctions: Policy challenges in transition to a new political economy of the Iranian oil and gas sectors," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 464-475.
    10. Yudha Prambudia & Masaru Nakano, 2012. "Integrated Simulation Model for Energy Security Evaluation," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(12), pages 1-25, December.
    11. Li, Fujia & Dong, Suocheng & Li, Zehong & Li, Yu & Li, Shantong & Wan, Yongkun, 2012. "The improvement of CO2 emission reduction policies based on system dynamics method in traditional industrial region with large CO2 emission," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 683-695.


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