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Integrated Evaluation and Scenario Simulation for Forest Ecological Security of Beijing Based on System Dynamics Model

Author

Listed:
  • Fangzheng Li

    () (School of Landscape Architecture, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China)

  • Shasha Lu

    () (School of Economics and Management, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China)

  • Yinan Sun

    () (School of Landscape Architecture, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China)

  • Xiong Li

    () (School of Landscape Architecture, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China)

  • Benye Xi

    () (Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Silviculture and Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China)

  • Weiqi Liu

    () (School of Landscape Architecture, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China)

Abstract

Forest Ecological Security (FES) means coordinated development of forest ecosystems, social economies, and the forest environment. In this paper, we evaluate FES in Beijing under different designed scenarios using a dynamic systems model and find that first, the initial FES index value (in Scenario 0) increased to its highest level of 0.529 in 2012, but declined slightly to 0.485 by 2020. Second, in Scenarios 1–4, the FES index value reached 0.545, 0.516, 0.585 and 0.637 respectively in 2020, which was enhanced in varying degrees when compared with Scenario 0. The simulation shows the implementation of forest management policies, socioeconomic development and environmental management combine to affect the FES in Beijing. The FES could develop into a good state when the productivity of forest resources, the stability of forest environments and the orderly development of the social economy are carefully maintained (in Scenario 4). This research could provide decision-making in support of the overall improvement of forest conditions while promoting sustainable forestry in Beijing.

Suggested Citation

  • Fangzheng Li & Shasha Lu & Yinan Sun & Xiong Li & Benye Xi & Weiqi Liu, 2015. "Integrated Evaluation and Scenario Simulation for Forest Ecological Security of Beijing Based on System Dynamics Model," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(10), pages 1-29, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:7:y:2015:i:10:p:13631-13659:d:56815
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yudha Prambudia & Masaru Nakano, 2012. "Integrated Simulation Model for Energy Security Evaluation," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(12), pages 1-25, December.
    2. Jun-Yi Zhang & La-Chun Wang, 2015. "Assessment of water resource security in Chongqing City of China: What has been done and what remains to be done?," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(3), pages 2751-2772, February.
    3. Zhang, Z. & Lu, W.X. & Zhao, Y. & Song, W.B., 2014. "Development tendency analysis and evaluation of the water ecological carrying capacity in the Siping area of Jilin Province in China based on system dynamics and analytic hierarchy process," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 275(C), pages 9-21.
    4. Mike Hodson & Simon Marvin, 2009. "‘Urban Ecological Security’: A New Urban Paradigm?," International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(1), pages 193-215, March.
    5. Casey, Thomas R. & Töyli, Juuso, 2012. "Mobile voice diffusion and service competition: A system dynamic analysis of regulatory policy," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 162-174.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Fangzheng Li & Yinan Sun & Xiong Li & Xinhua Hao & Wanyi Li & Yun Qian & Haimeng Liu & Haiyan Sun, 2016. "Research on the Sustainable Development of Green-Space in Beijing Using the Dynamic Systems Model," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(10), pages 1-17, September.
    2. Zoran Govedar & Milun Krstić & Srđan Keren & Violeta Babić & Brane Zlokapa & Branko Kanjevac, 2018. "Actual and Balanced Stand Structure: Examples from Beech-Fir-Spruce Old-Growth Forests in the Area of the Dinarides in Bosnia and Herzegovina," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(2), pages 1-15, February.
    3. Qiuyan Liu & Mingwu Wang & Xiao Wang & Fengqiang Shen & Juliang Jin, 2018. "Land Eco-Security Assessment Based on the Multi-Dimensional Connection Cloud Model," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(6), pages 1-13, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Beijing; forest ecological security; integrated evaluation; scenario simulation; system dynamics model;

    JEL classification:

    • Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics
    • Q0 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General
    • Q2 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation
    • Q3 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation
    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products

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