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Building Multivariate Time-Varying Smooth Transition Correlation GARCH Models, with an Application to the Four Largest Australian Banks

Author

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  • Anthony D. Hall

    (National Centre for Econometric Research (NCER), Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD 4000, Australia)

  • Annastiina Silvennoinen

    (National Centre for Econometric Research (NCER), Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD 4000, Australia)

  • Timo Teräsvirta

    (Aarhus BSS, Aarhus University, DK-8210 Aarhus V, Denmark
    Center for Applied Statistics and Economics (C.A.S.E.), Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, DE-10178 Berlin, Germany)

Abstract

This paper proposes a methodology for building Multivariate Time-Varying STCC–GARCH models. The novel contributions in this area are the specification tests related to the correlation component, the extension of the general model to allow for additional correlation regimes, and a detailed exposition of the systematic, improved modelling cycle required for such nonlinear models. There is an R-package that includes the steps in the modelling cycle. Simulations demonstrate the robustness of the recommended model building approach. The modelling cycle is illustrated using daily return series for Australia’s four largest banks.

Suggested Citation

  • Anthony D. Hall & Annastiina Silvennoinen & Timo Teräsvirta, 2023. "Building Multivariate Time-Varying Smooth Transition Correlation GARCH Models, with an Application to the Four Largest Australian Banks," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-37, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jecnmx:v:11:y:2023:i:1:p:5-:d:1059591
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:taf:jnlbes:v:30:y:2012:i:2:p:212-228 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Annastiina Silvennoinen & Timo Teräsvirta, 2009. "Modeling Multivariate Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity with the Double Smooth Transition Conditional Correlation GARCH Model," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 7(4), pages 373-411, Fall.
    3. Amado, Cristina & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2013. "Modelling volatility by variance decomposition," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 175(2), pages 142-153.
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    9. Cristina Amado & Annastiina Silvennoinen & Timo Terasvirta, 2017. "Modelling and Forecasting WIG20 Daily Returns," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 9(3), pages 173-200, September.
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    12. Barry K. Goodwin & Matthew T. Holt & Jeffrey P. Prestemon, 2011. "North American Oriented Strand Board Markets, Arbitrage Activity, and Market Price Dynamics: A Smooth Transition Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 93(4), pages 993-1014.
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    15. Jian Kang & Johan Stax Jakobsen & Annastiina Silvennoinen & Timo Teräsvirta & Glen Wade, 2022. "A Parsimonious Test of Constancy of a Positive Definite Correlation Matrix in a Multivariate Time-Varying GARCH Model," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-41, August.
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    1. He, Changli & Kang, Jian & Silvennoinen, Annastiina & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2024. "Long monthly temperature series and the Vector Seasonal Shifting Mean and Covariance Autoregressive model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 239(1).

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