Measuring and Analyzing the Spatiotemporal Evolution of Agricultural Green Total Factor Productivity on the Tibetan Plateau (2002–2021)

This study employs a Super-SBM model to construct a comprehensive evaluation framework—encompassing input factors, desirable outputs, and undesirable outputs—to measure agricultural green total factor productivity (AGTFP) in the Tibet Autonomous Region in the period 2002–2021. We then apply kernel density estimation and Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition to examine its spatiotemporal evolution. The main findings are as follows: (1) AGTFP in Tibet rose overall from 0.949 in 2002 to 1.068 in 2021, with a compound annual growth rate of 0.78%, yet remained below the national average; (2) significant regional heterogeneity emerged, with three typical evolution patterns identified: continual improvement (Nagqu, Qamdo), stable fluctuation (Lhasa, Xigazê), and risk of decline (Lhoka, Nyingchi, Ngari); (3) gains in pure technical efficiency were the primary driver of AGTFP growth, while insufficient scale efficiency was a key constraint; (4) AGTFP exhibited a “convergence–divergence–reconvergence” dynamic, with interregional disparities widening but structural patterns stabilizing; and (5) interregional inequality was the main source of overall disparity—its importance grew over the study period, with the largest gap observed between agrarian and pastoral zones. On this basis, we recommend a “gradient advancement” strategy that prioritizes pure technical efficiency and regional coordination, while promoting zone-specific support tools tailored to local ecological conditions and institutional capacities to ensure inclusive green productivity growth.