Assessing Sustainable Growth: Evolution and Convergence of Green Total Factor Productivity in Tibetan Plateau Agriculture

Accurate assessment of green productivity is essential for advancing sustainable agriculture in ecologically fragile regions. This study examined the evolution of agricultural green total factor productivity (AGTFP) in Tibet over the period 2002–2021 by applying a super-efficiency SBM-GML model that accounts for undesirable outputs. We decompose AGTFP into technical change and efficiency change, conduct redundancy analysis to identify sources of inefficiency and explore its spatiotemporal dynamics through kernel density estimation and convergence analysis. Results show that (1) AGTFP in Tibet grew at an average annual rate of 0.78%, slower than the national average of 1.6%; (2) labor input, livestock scale, and agricultural carbon emissions are major sources of redundancy, especially in pastoral regions; (3) technological progress is the main driver of AGTFP growth, while efficiency gains have a limited impact, reflecting a technology-led growth pattern; (4) AGTFP follows a “convergence-divergence-reconvergence” trend, with signs of conditional β convergence after controlling for regional heterogeneity. These findings highlight the need for region-specific green agricultural policies. Priority should be given to improving green technology diffusion and input allocation in high-altitude pastoral areas, alongside strengthening ecological compensation and interregional coordination to enhance green efficiency and promote high-quality development across Tibet.