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U.S. manufacturing and the importance of international trade: it’s not what you think

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Abstract

The public often gauges the strength of the U.S. economy by the performance of the manufacturing sector, especially by changes in manufacturing employment. When such employment declines, as has been the trend for many years, it is often assumed to be evidence of the slow death of U.S. manufacturing and an associated rise in imports. This article outlines key trends in U.S. manufacturing, especially the strong performance of manufacturing output and productivity, and their connection to both exports and imports. The authors use ordinary regression, causality, and cointegration analyses to provide empirical evidence for the positive role of imports in boosting manufacturing output. Policies to bolster exports at the expense of imports would significantly harm U.S. manufacturing.

Suggested Citation

  • Kevin L. Kliesen & John A. Tatom, 2013. "U.S. manufacturing and the importance of international trade: it’s not what you think," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 27-50.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2013:i:january:p:27-50:n:v.95no.1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tatom, John, 2007. "China currency dispute: is a rise in the yuan inevitable, necessary or desirable?," MPRA Paper 5366, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G. Haubrich, 2017. "Deep Recessions, Fast Recoveries, And Financial Crises: Evidence From The American Record," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(1), pages 527-541, January.
    3. Susan Houseman & Christopher Kurz & Paul Lengermann & Benjamin Mandel, 2011. "Offshoring Bias in U.S. Manufacturing," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 25(2), pages 111-132, Spring.
    4. John A. Tatom, 1988. "The link between the value of the dollar, U.S. trade and manufacturing output: some recent evidence," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 24-37.
    5. Tatom John A, 2007. "The US-China Currency Dispute: Is a Rise in the Yuan Necessary, Inevitable or Desirable?," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 7(3), pages 1-15, October.
    6. Kevin L. Kliesen & William Poole, 2000. "Agriculture outcomes and monetary policy actions: Kissin' cousins?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 82(May), pages 1-12.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kazmer, David Owen, 2014. "Manufacturing outsourcing, onshoring, and global equilibrium," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 463-472.
    2. Kevin L. Kliesen & John A. Tatom, 2018. "Here’s Why U.S. Manufacturing Is Fundamentally Strong," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue 4, pages 1-4.
    3. Holod, Dmytro & Torna, Gökhan, 2018. "Do community banks contribute to international trade? Evidence from U.S. Data," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 185-204.
    4. Kevin L. Kliesen & John A. Tatom, 2018. "Is American manufacturing in decline?," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 53(3), pages 107-123, July.
    5. Richard V. Adkisson & Comfort F. Ricketts, 2016. "Exploring the Redistribution of Manufacturing Employment Among the American States in the Face of Overall Declines in Employment," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 30(3), pages 215-231, August.

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