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Consumers and the economy, part II: Household debt and the weak U.S. recovery

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  • Atif Mian
  • Amir Sufi

Abstract

The U.S. economic recovery has been weak, especially in employment growth. A microeconomic analysis of U.S. counties shows that this weakness is closely related to elevated levels of household debt accumulated during the housing boom. Counties where household debt grew moderately from 2002 to 2006 have seen a moderation of employment losses and a robust recovery in durable consumption and residential investment. By contrast, counties that experienced large increases in household debt during the boom have been mired in a severe recessionary environment even after the official end of the recession.

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  • Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2011. "Consumers and the economy, part II: Household debt and the weak U.S. recovery," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jan18.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:y:2011:i:jan18:n:2011-02
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Taylor, Alan M. & Schularick, Moritz & Jordà , Òscar, 2011. "When Credit Bites Back: Leverage, Business Cycles, and Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 8678, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Ali Güneş & Cengiz Tunç, 2021. "Saving Impact of Mortgage Payments: A Microlevel Study for the U.S. Households," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(S2), pages 335-360, September.
    3. Jiseob Kim, 2016. "Why household debt held by Korean seniors is problematic: An international comparison," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(4), pages 2080-2093.

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